中国需求落后于供给：2026年第二季度数据显示国内需求大幅放缓

Demand trails supplyO2datasignalasharperslowdownindomesticdemand,with FAl contracting, retail sales stalling, and propertydeteriorating.We expect a typical intra-year pattern topersist: a strong Q1, moderation in Q2-3 as fiscal effects fade,followed by a policy-supported pickup in Q4 to hit the target. +85229032653 yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang +85229032652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Weappreciateyour5-starvote in the2026ExtelGlobal Fixed-IncomeResearchSurvey intheAsiaex-Japan Economicscategory. Jian Chang+85229032654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong THE2026EXTELSURVEYISNOWOPEN Supportourindustry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthisyear's Extel Global FIResearchSurvey View Analysts K-shapedeconomycontinues With fading fiscal stimulus, falling credit impulse,and weakening domestic demand, China'sheadline GDP growth slowed visibly,to 4.3% y/y inQ2 from 5% in Q1.The print was weaker thanconsensus and our forecast (Bloomberg consensus: 4.5%, Barclays: 4.7%).We highlighted thedownside risks to our GDP growth forecasts given the sharp slowdown in activity data anddomestic demand in April-May.On a g/g saar basis,the growth momentum slowed to1.8% inQ2 from 6.8%inQ1.Reflecting the weaker-than-expected Q2 real GDP growth, we revise downour 2026 full-year GDP growthforecast modestlyto 4.5%from 4.6%.Despite thedownwardrevision, we stillexpect China to hit the lower bound of the official 4.5-5% growth target. We think the June activity data continued to paint a picture of a K-shaped recovery.First, demand still lagged behind supply by a wide margin, with infrastructure investmentposting a double-digit decline, most property indicators deteriorating and retail sales growingonly marginally, whileIP growth reached a three-month high thanks to strong export growth.Second, traditional industries (construction,low-tech and labor-intensive manufacturingsectors) lagged behind the new and high-tech industries, which include renewableenergy,industrial robotics,semiconductors,Alandadvancedmanufacturing.Third,domesticdemand lagged behind external demand,with exports remaining a keygrowth enginefor GDP. demand indicators (retail sales, FAl and exports), deflated by the simple average of CPl and PPl,fell 3.6% y/y in Q2 after expanding 3.4% in Q1 (Figure 6). In our view, the large gap between GDPand demand indicators reflects: 1) China's GDP growth is production based; and 2) theslowdown in IP and services production is much milder than the slowdown in demandindicators.We think the sharp deterioration in domestic demand reflects paybackfromfront-loadedfiscal stimulus and a weakening credit impulse,and structural constraintsassociatedwiththeK-shapedgrowthpattern. Q4We expect a typical intra-year pattern to persist:a strong early-year rebound, moderation in Q2-Q3 asfiscal effectsfade,followed bya policy-supported pickup in Q4tomeet the annualtarget (Q3E: 4.1% q/q saar, Q4E: 4.9%).We note that the positive effects of previouslyannounced policies are still unfolding. In particular, the CNY8oobn new financing tool (vsCNY500bn in2025)had not yet been deployed as of H1.We expect disbursements to commencein H2, providing incremental support to growth. On a quarterly basis, growth momentum islikely to remain weak in Q3 before recovering in Q4 as additional stimulus kicks in.Our2026fullyear GDP growth forecast of 4.5% is underpinned by three key rationales. .First, China's exports have consistently exceeded market expectations year to date,partiallyoffsettingweakened domesticdemand.We expect exports to continue tobenefitfromtheglobal Al capex investment cycle and the ongoing global energy transition, providing animportant buffer for growth. We expect export growth to remain double-digits in H2 in view ofstrong export orders on hand among high-tech exporters (green-tech and Al-related), lendingsupportto GDP growth. · Second, we note that the positive effects of previously announced policies are still unfolding.In particular, the CNY8oobn new financing tool had not yet been deployed as of H1. We expectdisbursements to commence in H2, providing incremental support to growth. It was reportedthat the CNY8oobn new financing tool will be channelled towards sectors similarto those in2025,including digital economy,Al, low-altitude economy,infrastructure and greentransition,witha heavierfocus onservices'. Third, beyond the announced (but not yet deployed) CNY8oobn new financing tool, we seescope forthe authorities to introduce additional (quasi-)fiscal stimulus to support domesticdemand and hit growth target. As 2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan,support if 2026 GDP growth is at risk of missing March NPC's target of 4.5-5%. WatchlateJulyandOctoberPolitburomeetings From a timing perspective, we expect the government to have a clearer assessmentofwhetherChina is at risk of missing its growth target by19 October, when Q3 GDP data are released.Thiswill li