亚洲科技策略3Q26：估值创新高但盈利支撑完好，精选赢家并增配部分滞后标的

Asia Tech Strategy 3Q26: Record high valuations but earningssupport intact....be selective on winners & add some laggards Asia tech has had a strong start to the year, yet again, with market cap weighted performanceat 85% and equal weighted return at 40%. In this report, we join hands with our fundamentaltech analysts to present the opportunities within the sector. Rupal Agarwal+65 6326 7641rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com The top-down view:We remain constructive on the sector as earnings support remainsstrong with ample room for upward revisions to continue. However, valuation support islimited -after seeing peak valuation of 36x fwd. PE in May, Asia tech sector is now tradingat 30x fwd. PE ie. +1.8SD above 10yr avg and 62% premium to the market vs. 5yr avgof 40%. On revenue multiple, the sector is trading at tech bubble level valuations of 5.1xPS. Of the winning sub-sectors, we recommend trimming exposure towards ComputerPeripheral as earnings upgrade is at record high. However, for Semis and Communication/Electronic Equipment, upward revisions are not at extreme yet, though valuation risk is highfor equipment names that are trading at record high multiples on both 12m fwd. PE andPS. The laggards ie. Internet, Entertainment, Interactive Media & Services have fallen totrough valuations and earnings downgrade - while there is no clear bottom yet (except fordowngrades bottoming for Entertainment) but at such extreme levels, we believe it is timeto add some exposure back. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQF+852 2123 2636cheng.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Positioning within tech:YTD, momentum and growth tech names are up 128% and 69%respectively while value (39%) and quality (38%) have lagged. We have been positive onmomentum tech for sometime but also recommended finding opportunities within thevalue side. Given the rising risk in the momentum trade and extreme dispersion withintech with growth tech at record high momentum while value/quality still having ampleroom for momentum to build up, we believe chasing value and quality at this point makesmore sense. Do note, we are not negative on momentum yet but recommending selectivelychasing momentum within quality tech names while looking for opportunities on thelaggards ie. cheap tech large-caps.We show our screens in Exhibit 22- Exhibit 24.Forour updated screens for Asia, China, Korea and India see our Asia Quant Strategy Deck. Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Semiconductors:Despite stock volatility, AI demand & momentum remains robust. Wehence stay positive on AI and like MediaTek particularly as the thesis is about rapid sharegain in TPU, instead of the size of the overall AI market. For more conservative investors,TSMC is still a quality compounder with undemanding valuation. For more investors thatare willing to take more risks, memory stocks offer the most upward earnings revisionsand highest torque. We rate KIOXIA Underperform on long-term threat from China butOutperform on Samsung, SK hynix & Micron. China Internet:Sector sentiment worsened significantly in Q2, but has bounced on theback of Tencent’s Hy3 model release, and Alibaba commentary pointing to better thanfeared June quarter trends. We’re hopeful sector performance can improve for a periodfrom low starting valuations, and as macro comps normalize post 6.18. The AI capex andROI debate will likely persist for the large caps, though with the Weixin agent rolling out, andAlibaba’s Apsara conference likely to bring new product announcements, there’s at leaststarting to be application layer progress. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedMU, 3690.HK, 700.HK, 9618.HK, 9988.HK, 9999.HK, BABA, BZ, JD, NTES, PDD estimate is Adjusted EPS; 2330.TT, TSM, 2303.TT, UMC, 5347.TTvaluation is P/B (x); 2454.TT, 3034.TT, 005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI, 000660.KS, 285A.JP valuation is Reported P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS ASIA SEMICONDUCTORS AND EQUIPMENT & GLOBAL MEMORY - COVERED BY MARK LI TSMC:We rate TSMCOutperformwith TP=NT$2,780.00. UMC: We rate UMCUnderperformwith TP=NT$47.00. Vanguard: We rate VanguardMarket-Performwith TP=NT$94.00. MediaTek:We rate MediaTekOutperformwith TP=NT$4,380.00. Novatek: We rate NovatekMarket-Performwith TP=NT$370.00. Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung ElectronicsOutperformwith target price of KRW 440,000. SK hynix:We rate SK hynixOutperformwith target price to KRW 3,300,000. Micron:We rate MicronOutperformwith target price to US$ 1,300.00.KIOXIA:We rate KIOXIAUnderperformwith target price to JPY 40,000.CHINA INTERNET - COVERED BY ROBIN ZHUTencent Holdings:We rate Tencent Holdi