亚太科技策略2026年第三季度：估值创纪录高位但盈利支撑完好...精选赢家并增持部分落后者

Asia Tech Strategy 3Q26: Record high valuations but earningssupport intact....be selective on winners & add some laggards at85% and equa/weightedreturnat 40%.Inthis report, we joinhands withourfundamentaltechanalyststopresenttheopportunitieswithinthesector. +656326 7641rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com strong withampleroom forupwardrevisionsto continue.However,valuation support islimited-after seeing peak valuation of 36x fwd.PE in May,Asia tech sector is now tradingat 30xfwd.PE ie.+1.8SD above 10yr avg and 62% premium to the market vs.5yr avgof 40%. On revenue multiple, the sector is trading at tech bubble level valuations of 5.1xPS.Ofthewinning sub-sectors,we recommend trimming exposure towards ComputerPeripheral as earningsupgradeis at record high.However,for Semis and Communication/Electronic Equipment, upward revisions are not at extreme yet, though valuation risk is highfor equipment names that are trading at record high multiples on both 12m fwd.PE andPS.The laggards ie. Internet, Entertainment, Interactive Media & Services have fallen totrough valuations and earnings downgrade-whilethere isno clear bottomyet (exceptfordowngradesbottomingfor Entertainment)but at such extreme levels,webelieve it is timetoadd someexposureback. +852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com +85221232659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQF+85221232636 +85221232623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+85221232669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Positioningwithintech:YTD,momentumandgrowthtechnames areup128%and69%respectivelywhile value (39%)andquality (38%)have lagged.We have been positive onmomentum techfor sometime butalso recommendedfinding opportunities withinthevalue side.Giventherisingrisk inthemomentumtradeand extremedispersionwithintech with growth tech at record high momentum while value/quality still having ampleroom for momentum to build up, we believe chasing value and quality at this point makesmoresense.Donote,wearenotnegativeonmomentumyetbutrecommendingselectivelychasingmomentumwithinqualitytechnameswhilelookingforopportunitiesonthelaggards ie.cheap tech large-caps.We show our screens in Exhibit22-Exhibit 24.Forourupdated screens for Asia, China,Korea and India see our Asia Quant Strategy Deck. Charles Gou+85221232618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang+8522123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Semiconductors:Despitestockvolatility,Aldemand&momentumremains robust.Wehence stay positive on Aland like MediaTek particularly as the thesis is about rapid sharegain in TPU, instead of the size of the overall Al market.For more conservative investors,TSMC is still a quality compounder with undemanding valuation.For more investors thatare willing to take more risks,memory stocks offer themost upward earnings revisionsand highest torque.We rate KIOXIA Underperform on long-term threat from China butOutperformon Samsung,SKhynix&Micron. China Internet:Sector sentiment worsened significantly in Q2,buthas bounced on theback of Tencent's Hy3model release,and Alibaba commentarypointingtobetterthanfromlowstarting valuations,and as macro comps normalizepost 6.18.The Al capexandROl debate will likely persist for the large caps, though with the Weixin agent rolling out, andAlibaba's Apsara conference likely to bring new product announcements, there's at leaststarting tobe application layerprogress. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS TSMC:We rateTSMCOutperform withTP=NT$2,780.00.UMC:We rate UMC Underperform with TP=NT$47.00.Vanguard:We rate Vanguard Market-Performwith TP=NT$94.00.MediaTek:WerateMediaTekOutperformwithTP=NT$4,380.00.Novatek:We rateNovatek Market-Perform withTP=NT$370.00.SamsungElectronics:WerateSamsungElectronicsOutperformwithtargetpriceofKRW440,000.SKhynix:Werate SKhynixOutperformwithtargetpricetoKRW3,300,000 Rupal Agarwal +6563267641 rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.comMicron: We rate Micron Outperform with target price to USs 1,300.00KIOXIA: Werate KIOXIAUnderperform withtarget price to JPY 4O,000CHINA INTERNET - COVERED BY ROBIN ZHUTencent Holdings: We rate Tencent Holdings Outperform with TP=780.0OHKDBaba: Werate Baba Outperform with TP=180.00HKD.JD:WerateJDOutperformwithTP=155.00HKDMeituan:We rate Meituan Market-Perform withTP=85.00HKD.NetEase:WerateNetEaseOutperformwithTP=235.00HKDPDD Holdings: We rate PDD Holdings Market -Perform with TP=110.0O USDKanzhun:We rate Kanzhun Market-Performwith TP=18.00USD Catalog Retail"and"lnteractive Mediaand Services"basedon subsectorclassification. YTD,Asia techhas hada strong start to theyear with market cap weighted performance at 85% and equal weighted return at 40%by end of Jun 2026.Clearly,large-caps have been leading,similarto what we saw in 2025.Interestingly,this isthefirst time in 15yrs that the sector has delivered such strong performance for 4 consecutive years. In terms of sub-sectors,relativeto market,Semiconductors (+98%)has ledfollowed by ComputerPeripherals (95%),Electronic Equip (+87%)andCommunication Equip (+86%).All rest sub-sectors has underperformed YTD, wi