领袖和谐传动系统1H26E预览；强劲人形机器人需求

Forecast Change AsiaChina ReutersBloombergExchangeTicker688017.SS688017 CHSHH688017 IndustrialsManufacturing 1H26E preview; Strong humanoidsdemand; Capacity expansion; SKF JV Valuation & Risks Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst+852-2203-5884 Leaderdrive is scheduled to report 1H26E results in the evening of 26 August. We raise our 2026E-28E estimates and expect a solid 1H26E print, boosted bystrong humanoid robot demand and the company's rapid capacity expansion.Thedevelopment of China's humanoid robot market has exceeded ourexpectations, as both AGIBOT and UBTECH (key humanoid robot customers ofLeaderdrive) reported strong shipments and orders YTD. Leaderdrive's multipleJVs, including the new JV with SKF on bearings, add to the company's productportfolio and, more importantly, its overseas network, paving the way forinternational expansion. That said, competition is intensifying for humanoidrobot reducers, as peers, including Laifual and Kedali, are also aggressivelyexpandingcapacity,which could challenge pricing and market share ofLeaderdrive. We think the current price has already discounted a 10-15% marketshare globally for Leaderdrive in humanoid robot components across bodyreducers, rotary actuators, bearings, body screws and hand reducers, and wetherefore see limited upside. We reiterate our Hold recommendation and raise thetarget price to RMB370. Raise forecasts on strong humanoid robot demand andcontinued capacity expansion We upgrade our estimates and now forecast2026Erevenue of RMB1bn (+75% YoY)and net profit of RMB228mn (+83% YoY and 22.8% NPM). We also raise ourestimates for2027E to revenue of RMB1.7bn (+70% YoY) and net profit ofRMB393mn (+72% YoY and 23.2% NPM). Strong humanoid robot demand: we forecast RMB300-400mn humanoid robotrevenue in 2026E Leaderdrive generated RMB100mn revenue from humanoid robot components in2025.We forecast humanoid robot revenue to grow to RMB300-400mn in 2026E,accounting for 30-40% of group revenue, and to a further RMB700mn in 2027E,accounting for over 40% of group revenue. 8 July 2026ManufacturingLeader Harmonious Drive Systems We forecast fast growth in the global humanoid robot market, with shipmentssurging from 17,500 units in 2025 to ~50,000 units in 2026E. Of this, China remainsthe largest market — we forecast ~40,000 units of humanoid robot shipments inChina in 2026E from ~15,000 units in 2025 (link to report). Since then,marketdevelopment has exceeded our expectations: nAGIBOTannounced the production of its 15,000th embodied AI robot on28 June 2026, shortly after having achieved its 10,000th unit on 28 March2026.This suggests that the company has accelerated production,producing ~5,000 units in 2Q26 alone compared to over 5,000 units in 2025. nUBTECHtargets to sell 5,000 units of full-sized humanoid robots (excludingbionic robots) in 2026E, compared to ~1,000 units sold in 2025. Thecompany launched consumer-grade full-size ultra-bionic humanoid robotson 30 June 2026, and reported orders of over 13,000 units. AGIBOT and UBTECH are the top two customers of Leaderdrive's humanoidrobot business.The rapid development of these two companies and the overallChina humanoid robot market bodes well for Leaderdrive, in our view. For the timebeing, we think Leaderdrive's humanoid robot business still concentrates onChinese humanoid robot manufacturers. We see room for more orders forLeaderdrive from overseas humanoid robot manufacturers as the market scales upglobally. Continued capacity expansion: to reach over 1mn unit capacity in 2026E, andover 2mn annualised capacity in 2027E, close to the level of Harmonic DriveSystems (HDS) Leaderdrive manufactured 433,655 units of harmonic reducers in 2025. Amidstrong market demand, management continues to ramp up production capacityandtargets to reach 120,000 units per month by the end of 2026, with over 1mnunits for 2026E. For 2027E, the company targets an annualized capacity of over2mn units. We note that this would bring Leaderdrive's capacity close to that ofHarmonic Drive Systems (HDS), which is currently around 2.2mn per annum. Management believes that it could achieve 2mn annualised capacity by utilising itsexisting plants and by using its own funds and loanswithout a capacity raise.Ratherthan equipment,management cites labour force availability as abottleneck, as it takes 1-3M to train a technician. Leaderdrive keeps recruiting tofacilitate the capacity expansion. 1H26E preview: Expect solid results We forecast1H26Erevenue of RMB372mn (+48% YoY) and net profit of RMB83mn(+55% YoY). We forecast2Q26Erevenue of RMB232mn (+51% YoY) and net profitof RMB50mn (+51% YoY). We assume Leaderdrive to manufacture ~70,000 unitsof harmonic drives per month in 2Q26E with broadly stable margins YoY. International expansion through multiple JVs with partnersincluding SKF, Minth and Sanhua Leaderdrive has established several JVs with industrial partners to pave the wayfor its international expansion.For the JVs, Lead