长期视角：伯尔尼品牌的变革——十亿美元品牌的消亡

Brand are losing shareto more nimble, niche challengers, who leverage the lower barriers toentryandtake advantageofthe changed consumerpreferences,broughtaboutbythreedecades of globalization and digitalization.However,the very source of thesemega-brandsgrowth (globalization and digital) is now the source of their downfall by lowering costs,disrupting traditional distribution and marketing channels,and accelerating product cycles&commoditizing innovation.The death of brands is nothing new.It is inherent in the boom and bust of the brand william.woods@bernsteinsg.comRichard Trainor +442077621050richard.trainor@bernsteinsg.comAlice Buckley +4420 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com lifecycle.However, larger brands have struggled more overthe last 10 years -brands with>s2.5bn sales have lost share around the world as they struggle to maintain relevancevs. smaller brands (<$1bn) gaining share since 2016. From the fall of the Berlin Wall in1990,manyofthesemega-brandshavegrownthroughthreedecadesofglobalization,digitalization,and rising middle classes.Many of these mega-brands are nowfacing theirdownwardtrajectoryas brandfatigue sets in,growth avenues stagnate andcompetitionincreases.Atthesametime,consumers havebegunto challenge thenarrative soldbybrands. As global brands scaled, they lost their meaning through overproduction - Nike,Gillette and Ford are no longer the symbols of identity that they once were. +44 20 7676 7293rhea.gudiwala@bernsteinsg.com Alix Turner +44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com thedepartment store andtraditional advertising,enabling easier access to consumers.Challengerbrands cantargetsmaller communities,interestsand productniches.Acceleratingproductcycles and diminishing incremental innovationempowerthesechallengers to jump onthe latesttrend,whilst mega-brands languish.Globalization reducesthe cost of production.It hasneverbeen easierto setupa brandand scale it whilstthebillion dollar brand moat is melting. Consumer preferences have changed. Identities have become more fragmented andmultifaceted. Mega-brands require cultural homogeneity (the same TV, advertisements& culture) but the growth of the algorithm has fragmented culture, creating thousandsof niches.In a world ofmorefluid identities and temporariness,brand loyalty has wanedand consumers havebecome increasinglyfickle.Trends movefasterandfasterandtheconsumer searchesfor newness vs.stability.Global brands no longer provide identity.The Ford Family, the Nike Athlete, the Marlboro man are no longer aspirations. Consumersengagewithniches,thelocal and thepersonal whilstglobal mega-brands havebecomeoverproduced,ubiquitous andlacking meaning. It is increasingly difficult for mega-brands to maintain relevance.They are slow toreact. Inditex and Uniqlo are notable exceptions, who succeed by avoiding the brand cyclealtogether.Challengerbrands cantackleniches,beagileandtakeadvantageofachangedthan four months,we have gone from mood board to specification,prototypeandfinallyfinished product. Legacy brands cannot compete with speed-to-market and address everyniche.Small brands can access quality production at scale.This is not (just)a shoe. cycles themselves can present attractive investments on both the long and short side -we see Puma (O) and Pandora (U) as ourtop picks at different points in their brand cycle. In food, we continue to prefer those who can capitalise on strength in privatelabel such as Tesco (O), Jeronimo Martins (O), and Marks & Spencer (O)WerateInditex,Next,Puma,JDSports,3i,Tesco,JeronimoMartins,Marks&Spencer,and ZabkaOutperform Thecustomeris always rightandthecustomerisbecomingmorefickle12Brand loyalty is waning.12New ways of engaging with brands..16Brand fatigue19Localization/nichification/personalizatior..21Gen Z consumers act differently to their parents...24Barriers to entryarelower and thebilliondollar brand moat is melting..26The rise of e-commerce and the evolution of DTC...26Thedeathofthedepartmentstor29The growth of newmedia channels....30Globalization..32Fashioncycles areaccelerating.34Innovationisdiminishingand copycatsaremoreprevalent....36The Challenger Brands.38Other challenger sneaker brands..39Case Study: Axel Arigato...41CaseStudy:NewBalance.46Case Study: Skims.48 DETAILS THEDEATHOFBILLIONDOLLARBRANDSBillionDollarBrandsareunderpressureacrosscategoriesfromglobalsneakerbrandstoEuropeancarbrands,from hotelbrands decayingover3oyearstotheshift inthepower dynamicsbetweenFMG and supermarkets.Brands havealwaysboomedandbust,experiencing acyclecharacterizedbytherise andeventual erosion ofbrand heat. However,overthelastdecade,the scale advantage of larger scalebrands has been eroded andthemega-brand virtuous cycle hasdeteriorated.Barriers to entryhave collapsedasnewmarketing channels,evolving distribution channels,and globalization,havemade iteasierforsmallerbrandstotakeshare.Consumerpreferenceshavechanged,withconsumers increasinglyfavoringniche,local&personalizedproducts and experiences.Brandloyal