中日半导体：内存接口芯片入门——乘Agentic AI热潮

MemoryInterfaceChipPrimer:RidingontheagenticAlboom WeinitiatedcoverageonMontageinApril(initiationreportanddeck)wherewediscusstheopportunityformemoryinterfacechipvendorsdrivenbyagenticAl.Inthisprimer,weprovideacomprehensiveoverviewoftheindustry'sgrowthdrivers,competitivedynamics,andinvestmentimplicationstohelpinvestorsnavigatethesector.Updatedmodelscanbedownloadedhere:MemoryInterfaceChipIndustryModelandMontageModel.ReiterateOutperformonMontage,PTrevisedupfromHKD320to520inH-shareandCNY220to400inA-share.ReiterateOutperformonRenesas. QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com DavidDai,CFA+85229185704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com FrancisMa+85221232626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com MemoryinterfacechipsareadirectandamplifiedbeneficiaryoftheserverCPURenaissancedrivenbyAgenticAl.AstheindustryshiftsfromGPU-centrictrainingtowardinference-heavyagenticAldeployments—wheretheCPUreclaimsitsroleasorchestratorofmultistep,sequentialtasks—serverCPUvolumesarepoisedtogrowstructurallyfasterthanexpected(ourCPUreport),andtheroleofmemoryinterfacechipbecomesincreasinglyimportantwhentheDRAMcapacityandbandwidthperCPUgrows.WeprojecttheglobalmemoryinterfacechipsTAMtoreachUSD20Bnby2030(3xofourpreviousprojection)at65%CAGR(vs32%),drivenbythreereinforcingtailwinds:risingserverCPUvolume,increasingDRAMpackagecountperCPU,andhigherinterfacechipcontentperpackagethroughtheMRDIMMupgrade. KaiZhang+85221232665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com JackLin+85221232683jack.lin③bernsteinsg.com JuhoHwang+81367776980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com thisgapnarrowsfurtherasrisingDRAMdiepricesreducethepremium.MRDIMMpenetrationisanimportantdriver,asinterfacechipvalueperMRDIMMmoduleisroughly10XthatofRDIMM.EachMRDIMMadoptsa"1 MRCD+10MDB"architecture,versusjustoneRCDinstandardDDR5RDIMM.WeprojectMRDIMMpenetrationtoreach25%(vs20%previously)ofglobalserverDDRDIMMshipmentsby2030,drivenbythebandwidthimprovementMRDIMMdelivers.Theadoptionhurdleismanageable:MRDIMMpremiumisonlyabout10%ofthecurrent128GBRDIMMprice,and CarmineMilano,CFA+442077621857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Thecompetitivelandscapeforcorememoryinterfacechipsisatextbookoligopolythatdriveshighmargin.Montage,Renesas,andRambus(RMBS,notcovered)collectivelycontrol90%+ofglobalshare,protectedbyrigorousJEDECqualificationcyclesanddeepco-developmenttieswithDRAMIDMsandCPUplatforms.ThechipiscrucialforthepackageperformancebuttakesonlyLSD%ofthepackageprice,customershaveverylowincentivetoshifttonewvendorsandarewillingtoofferhighmargintosecurethequality.Thethreevendorscompeteneck-and-neckontheRDIMMroadmap,whileRenesasandMontageholdearly-moveradvantagesinMRDIMM.Thecomplementarysupportingchipssegmentismorefragmented,whereRenesasleadsthankstoitsanalogheritage. Wefavorallthreeleadingsuppliers,asmarkethasnotfullypricedinupsidefromCPUaccelerationandMRDIMMadoption.WeraiseMontageTPtoCNY400/HKD520forA-/H-Share,supportedbyCPU-drivendemandacrossbothitsmemoryinterfaceandPCIebusinesses,aswellassharegainsfromCXMTexpansion.Renesas'smemoryinterfaceisatascalesimilartoMontage’sdespitecontributingonly6%ofitrevenue,yetitsmarketcapisonly25%aboveMontage's;itappearssignificantlyundervalued,andmanagemenfsguidancefor20-30%growthCAGRforthisbusinessistoolow.RambusbenefitsacrossbothinterfacechipproductsandmemorycontrollerIProyalties;itssmallerrevenuebaseandmarketcapgiveitthelargestpotentialupsideelasticity. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS SinceAprilthesharesofMontage,Rambus,andRenesashaveralliedforseveralmonths,reflectingstronginvestorinterestinthememoryinterfacechipsectorastheCPUvendorscommentonstrongserverCPUdemand.Overthepastmonth,however,theirsharepriceshavecorrected10-30%frompeaklevelsasinvestorsincreasinglyquestionwhethervaluationshavebecomeoverstretched.Weexpectsentimenttoremainweakinthenearterm,reflectingcontinuedsoftnessinmemory-relatedsentiment,profit-takingfollowingthestrongsharepricerally,andconcernsaroundweaknear-termearningsduetosubstrateshortageforMontageandRambus.Fromatacticalperspective,investorsmayprefertoremainonthesidelinesforthenearterm.However,weexpectthatona12-monthhorizon,astheMRDIMMpenetrationcontinuetoincrease,wheninvestorstarttolookintothepotentialupsidesin2028thenthestockscouldworkagain,thereforelong-onlysshouldlooktobuythedipwhenthemarketcorrects. MontageTechnology:WerateMontageTechnologyasOutperformandraiseourA-shareTPtoCNY400,basedon50x2BFP/E(27Q3-28Q2earnings).Webelievea2BFframeworkbetterreflectstheupcomingearningsinflectiondrivenbythe2027-2028productcycle,includingtheramp-upofMRDIMMinterfacechips,andtheP/Eislowerthanthe5-yearCAGRsoshouldhavemoreupsideaswell.Weraiseour2027/2028EPSestimatesby19%/73%,respectively,onastrongeroutlookfortheCPUcycleandbetterMRDIMMpenetration.Wealsoincreaseourtargetmultiplefrom44xto50x,supportedbytherapidgrowthoftheESPbusiness(76.5%CAGR2025-28).FortheHshares,wesetatargetpriceofHKD520,implyinga15%premiumtoourA-shareTP(weusetheCNYtoHKDexchangerateat1:1.13).TheHsharepremiumreflectsthatglobalinvestorsfavorMontageasascarceChinaAl-exposednamewithoutdirectgeopoliticalrisks,unlikema