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MasTec打造卓越数据中心建设管理业务

2026-07-08 花旗 🦄黄斌
报告封面

MasTec (MTZ.N) MTZ Building a Superior Data Center Construction ManagementBusiness CITI'S TAKE Following our first-take on MTZ’s Superior acquisition and MTZ’sconference call, we are incrementally positive on the deal given severalfactors: Superior’s growing geographic presence + hyperscalerrelationships; Superior’s ability to rapidly scale skilled craft labor +prefabrication capability; and Superior’s strategic portfolio fit supportingcross-selling/pull-through opportunities across MTZ over time (which areexcluded in our Figure #1-2 accretion table and could provide upside toour estimate). While we acknowledge integration/execution risk could bea watch-item for investors (Superior’s adj. EBITDA margins expected to gofrom ~mid-teens in ’26 to ~LDD in ’27 driven primarily by geographicexpansion-related costs), overall we think MTZ’s ~LDD marginexpectation for Superior is reasonable and in-line with MTZ’s ~LDDexpectation for its Power Delivery segment (where Superior financials areexpected to be reported). Andrew KaplowitzAC+1-212-816-0642andrew.kaplowitz@citi.com Vladimir Bystrickyvladimir.bystricky@citi.com Piyush Avasthypiyush.avasthy@citi.com Additional Thoughts: In our view, the Superior deal is a continuation of MTZ’s effort to expand both self-perform capabilities as well as its current data center construction managementbusiness by integrating full project scope inside + outside DC projects. In particular,we think Superior’s ability to provide end-to-end electrical solutions at scale (i.e.,from design to ongoing maintenance) inside the data center augments MTZ’sexisting Power + Pipeline portfolio outside the data center. Additionally, we’vecontinued to reiterate our view that skilled craft labor remains a key bottleneck inthe data center infrastructure buildout, and we think that Superior’s ability toexpand labor meaningfully (grew its workforce from 800 to ~3k over the past 3years) + its ~300k sq. ft. prefabrication facility in Ohio enhances MTZ’s ability tomeet hyperscalers’ speed-to-market needs. MTZ’s ~$1.65bn purchase pricerepresents an estimated enterprise value of ~7x our estimated 2026E and ~8x ourestimated 2026E including a potential earnout, and we think Superior could bemeaningfully accretive to FY27 EPS (we estimate Superior could add ~13% to ourFY27 estimate; see Figure #1-2). Lastly, we note that on a pro-forma basis (i.e., including full-year Superiorcontribution), MTZ's FY26 guidance would increase to ~$19.2bn revenue/9.1% adj.EBITDA margin (driven by Power Delivery increasing to $6.4bn revenue/LDD adj.EBITDA margin vs. MTZ's 1Q26 expectation of ~$4.8bn/"approaching DD"). © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports MasTec Valuation Our target price of $483 is based on 42x our 2027 EPS estimate of $11.50, which is above MTZ’s 10-year average of ~13x, butwe think this is justified given: 1) recent acquisitions that have diversified MTZ's revenue base (more T&D and renewables); 2)ramping pipeline infrastructure 3) government stimulus boosting broadband/5G rollout; and 4) potential for synergies andself-help that could enhance margins over time. Risks Potential that Communications and/or Clean Energy growth could be slower to materialize than we expect due to slowercustomer capex spend or regulatory hang-ups (eg, IRS rules regarding IRA). Additionally, execution could be a risk along withsupply chain issues, which could particularly impact renewables and large oil & gas pipeline projects. If the impact on thecompany from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have difficulty achieving ourtarget price. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared