Energy Transfer LP（ET.N）2Q26盈利预览：前景可期但Q1难以复制

Energy Transfer LP (ET.N) 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Plenty to Look Forward To, But 1Q Might BeTough To Replicate CITI'S TAKE We estimate 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of ~$4.56bln, just above the $4.49blnStreet mean (FactSet). We expect the absence of ~$0.3bln of one-time1Q26 tailwinds (winter storm Fern, deficiency payments, etc.) and typicalseasonality to drive lower sequential results. That said, we do see somepartial offsets with general commodity strength throughout much of thequarter, Waha spreads remaining wide, SPR releases presenting apotential tailwind, and export demand remaining strong. Beyond thequarter, we'll be looking for updates on a handful of topics. Most notably,Hugh Brinson timing has been in focus for investors. We don't expectmanagement to overpromise here, likely pointing to modest butintermittent volume upside. Second, we could receive an update on NGLrecontracting efforts with recent updates from Matador suggesting ET hasalready made some progress. Finally, the growth backlog remains activeand we expect ET to continue to commercialize a robust opportunity set. Spiro DounisAC+1-212-816-6926spiro.dounis@citi.com Douglas Irwin+1-212-816-9525douglas.irwin@citi.com Charles Bryant+1-212-816-3284charles.bryant@citi.com ET is scheduled to release earnings on 8/4/26. Energy Transfer LP Company descriptionEnergy Transfer is a large diversified MLP with operations across the United States. ET’s business segments include Intrastate Transportation & Storage, Interstate Transportation & Storage, Midstream, NGL & Refined Products Transportation & Services,and Crude Oil Transportation & Services. ET also owns investments in Sunoco LP and USAC. Investment strategy We rate ET Buy. ET offers a higher-beta option relative to other large cap Midstream companies due to its higher leverage.Nonetheless, ET boasts one of the most geographically diverse and strategically critical asset networks among its peers,offering full integration from the wellhead to export markets. We believe that ET is well positioned to benefit from growingPermian and Haynesville production. The company is developing an LNG export terminal – a market we believe can double inthe US over the next decade. ET presents a strong capital return profile with a 9% yield, which we expect to continue to grow. Valuation Our $23 target price is derived through an NPV valuation and implies a 9.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2027 estimates. Risks Risks to our target price include: (1) weaker-than-anticipated production growth; (2) an increasingly stringent regulatoryenvironment; (3) failure to commercialize LNG; and (4) dilutive entrance into the Petchem market. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Within the past 12 months, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has acted as manager or co-manager of an offering ofsecurities of Energy Transfer LP.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within thepast 12 months from Energy Transfer LP.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than investment bankingservices from Energy Transfer LP in the past 12 months. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investmentbanking client(s): Energy Transfer LP. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and/or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in relation to Energy Transfer LP. (For anexplanation of the determination of signifi