2Q25E 预览：总收入承压但盈利前景良好

FY24AFY25EFY26EFY27E29,22527,87328,51529,04010.4(8.7)(4.6)2.31.827.824.922.725.126.11,512.2733.11,525.01,767.93.131.570.761.591.823.131.570.671.472.160.40.50.50.50.5 Target PriceUS$2.25(Previous TPUS$2.45)Up/Downside14.8%Current PriceUS$1.96China InternetSaiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkJoanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (US$mn)1,884.4Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn)52w High/Low (US$)3.50/1.53Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureSource: Company dataShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative16.0%18.8%1.0%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 14.5961.4Baidu45.1%PAG12.2%1-mth8.5%3-mth-7.4%6-mth-5.1% PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEBusiness forecasts update and valuationFigure1:iQiyi:forecast revisionCurrentRMBbnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue27.928.529.028.5Grossprofit6.37.27.66.6Operatingprofit0.81.82.10.9Non-GAAP net profit0.71.51.80.7Non-GAAP EPS (RMB)0.81.61.80.8Grossmargin22.7%25.1%26.1%23.1%Operatingmargin3.0%6.2%7.2%3.1%Non-GAAP net margin2.6%5.3%6.1%2.6%Source: CMBIGM estimatesFigure2:iQiyi:CMBIGM estimates vs consensusCMBIGMRMBbnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue27.928.529.028.9Grossprofit6.37.27.66.6Operatingprofit0.81.82.10.9Non-GAAP net profit0.71.51.80.6Non-GAAP EPS (RMB)0.81.61.80.7Grossmargin22.7%25.1%26.1%22.9%Operatingmargin3.0%6.2%7.2%3.0%Non-GAAP net margin2.6%5.3%6.1%2.1%Source: CMBIGM estimates, BloombergValuationWe valueiQiyiat US$2.25per share based on13x3Q25-2Q26Enon-GAAP EPS.Ourtarget PE multiple isat a discount to the sector average (33x), due to the intensecompetition in China’s video streaming sector.Figure3:iQiyi: target valuationP/E valuation3Q25-2Q26E Non-GAAP EPADSTarget PETarget Price (CNY)Target Price (US$)Source:Company data,CMBIGM estimatesFigure4: Globalstreaming platformsCompaniesTickerPricePE(x)(LC)2025ENetflix IncNFLX US1274.249.8DisneyDIS US122.221.4SpotifySPOT US720.9NATMETME US22.427.1Average32.7Source: Bloomberg,CMBIGMNote: data as of17Jul 1.2513.016.222.25PS (x)2026E2025E2026E40.912.210.919.72.351.1NA24.58.034.07.5 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMBInternational Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should