2Q26流媒体网络研讨会关键要点：Q2面临挑战，下半年或难轻松

+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.comMartin Boruchowicz +1 917 344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8302andrew.chungbernsteinsg.com NFLX NFLX: Key takeaways from 2026 streaming webinar - 02had some challenges & 2H unlikely an easy one; all eyes onadvertising trends in streamingengagement, subscriberdynamics andcontentperformancefor2Q26.Replay isavailablehere,pleasereachoutforthefulldeck.Fourkeytakeaways: Close Date8Jul2026NFLX Close Price (USD)75.59Price Target (USD)100.00Upside/(Downside)32%52-Week Range129.33/70.86SPX7,482.71FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarketCap (USD) (M)318,294EV (USD) (M)322,748PerformanceYTD1M6M12M is estimated atunder 96Bhours-above the weak-slate1H25butbelowthe strong-slate2H25.Themorenotable signal wasthat Q2 didn't follow the usual seasonal pattern:ratherthan the typical spring-to-summerupswing,engagementkept declining into June as theWorld Cup pulled a meaningful share of eyeballs awayfrom Netflix (and other streamingplatforms as well).This pressure reinforces why live sports and event programming matterstrategically,a thesis Netflix is already leaning into and reportedly extending further, with thecompany saidtobe in talksfor2030 World Cuprights. The World Cup dragis directlyaffecting subscriber growth,with soft 1H26 netaddstrackingbelow1H25and1H24levels.This softness puts pressureon thehighend of Netflix's 2026 revenue guide of 12-14% growth, which implicitly assumes roughly~20M net addsfortheyear alongside the March price increases and~$3B in expectedadvertising revenue. Reaching that full-year subscriber target now requires a meaningful 2Hreaccelerationfroman already-soft startingpoint,and/or>s3Badvertisingrevenue. The2H26 content slatedoesn'tofferanobvious catalyst todrivethatreacceleration.on projected engagement than the franchise hits that fueled 2H25 and 2H24 net adds(Squid Games, Stranger Things, Wednesday),implying revenuegrowth may havetoleanmoreon advertising upsidethan on a breakouttitleto reach thetopend of guidance.Summarycontinues on the next page... InvestmentImplications Wemaintain our Outperform rating for NFLX with a PT of $100-unchanged.AdjustedEPSF25AF26EF27EFinancialsF25A Structurally,engagement per subscriber remains under pressure-a trend we've discussed before-and it's driving Netflix to invest more broadly and diversify across contenttypes.Faster-decaying library content means Netflix needsto continue adding volume to sustain engagement, while returning seasons, though unexpectedly underperforming their priorinstallment, remain a core retention tool that Netflix is leaning on heavily (a large share of the 2026 slate is returning seasons).Thetrade-off is cost:sequelsgetprogressivelymoreexpensive,internationalcontent isno longerthecheap lever it oncewas (atleast not as cheap as before),and Netflix (and others)still needs to keep building new franchises alongside all of these tokeepfeedingthe contentpipeline. 8 Jul 2026-NFLX Q2:More than a quarter-key debates heading into the print WORLDCUPDISRUPTSSEASONALENGAGEMENTPATTERN Total 1H26 engagement is tracking below 96B hours,landing betweenlast year's 1Hand 2H.Netflix's global hourswatchedareprojectedto come in justunder 96Bfor 1H26,roughly-0.5%versus2H25 and+0.5%versus 1H25.This places1H26betweena strong2H25,which benefitedfrom arobustcontentslate,andaweaker1H25,which suffered froma thinnerslate-suggestingtotal 1H26 engagement hours did notmeaningfully grow despite some subscriber growth (Exhibit 1, Exhibit2). Weeklyhours watched declined steadily through the first half,witha sharp drop into June due to the FiFA World Cup.extendfurtherandsteepenheadingintoJune,breakingfromthenormalseasonalpattern.Summerisusuallyaseasonalpickupperiod (as children are out of school etc.) but this year's June instead saw engagement decline further rather than recover.Thissteeper-than-normal JunedeclinecanbedirectlyattributedtothestartoftheFIFAWorldCupinNorthAmerica.Thisyear's tournament expanded to over 45participating countries (up from32 in 2022)with significantlymorematches than prioreditions (4Omore games),creatingdirectcompetition forviewingtime.Looking at engagement across individual countries,themajority of World Cup participating countries saw Netflix engagement decline versus both May 2026 and June 2025 (Exhibit 3). already been increasing investment in this area (NFL, MLB, WWE, Boxing etc.),as data supports that sports programming hashistorically delivered more stable, resilient engagement than scripted content over time. This isn't isolated to Netflix -othermajor media and long-form platforms are increasingly recognizing the value of live sports rights - CNBC reports that Netflix,Disney &YouTube are exploring rights packages for the 2030 or 2034 World Cup, underscoring how seriously streaming anddigital platforms now view live sports as core to retention and engagement strategy EXHIBIT 2: Netflix experienced declining engagement in Q2, and did not experience the seasonal increase in Jun