地平线机器人（9660.HK）关键转折期的平台型标的机遇维持买入评级

Auto Components Buy: A platform stock opportunity at a pivotal moment reduce the need for platform-level partners 11.5011.50 the market is pricing in weak auto beta / HSD run-rate, OEM insourcing risk, ADsoftwarecommoditisation,andpressureonchip/softwareAsPs.Weacknowledgethatthese concerns could weighon short-term sentimentand earnings.However,wethink the market is underestimating the more important transition: Horizon is movingfromamodel-levelcontentstorytoaplatform-level deploymentopportunity.Thisisplatform stock at a pivotal moment. BYD: threat, validation, or stress test? We think BYD is the key card in theHorizon debate. Its push into in-house AD validates that mass-market AD isbecoming an industrystandard,notanichefeature, which benefits overall ADadoption. Also, we see the market debate as a bit binary, and we do not see this assimple supplier displacement. BYD wants more control over user experience but thisdoes not necessarily reduce the need for platform-level partners.OEMs still caredeeply about reliability, cost, iteration speed and safety responsibility. This is whereHorizon's opportunitybecomes morenuanced.What looks likecomponentdisplacement may instead become platform participation.The strategic opportunity isnot to resist BYD's ambition, but to help co-define the architecture behind mass-marketautonomy What could change the debate? We would watch for evidence that Horizon is movingfrom model-level content to platform-level participation: new or expanded OEM wins,deeper hardware-software integration, wallet-share gains after qualification, MPlimprovement and stronger City NOA user experience. Together, these signals would helpinvestors assess whether Horizon is stll a component supplier or whether it is becoming aplatform partner for mass-market autonomy deployment Yuqian Ding*Head of China Technology&Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 5108 *Employed by a non-US affliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/qualified pursuanttoFINRAregulations We retain a Buy rating on Horizon with earnings estimates and TP unchanged.Our target price implies c198% upside. Thus, we maintain a Buy rating. See page 6 forkey stock price catalysts and page 8forkey downside risks. Nocountryforbears The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com First, Physical Al has a longer cash-flow realisation curve than pure Al, especially amid muted China auto demand. Horizon's HSD 1H26 run-rate is bit behind schedule, partly due to weakOEMshipmentsfromweakdemandalthoughmoreshipmentslikelytobeback-endloadedin2H26 on later scheduled model cycle. Pure Al trades on token growth; Physical Al trades ondeploymentproof.Autonomous driving,robotaxis and humanoid robots are constrainedbyThis makes the equity-market timeline less linear, even if the end opportunity remains large. wrong at thefunction level.HighwayNOAand basic ADAS features are moving from premiumdifferentiation to standard configuration.Pricing pressure is normal when a feature becomesnot good enough when the feature becomes a brand promise. Horizon with hardware andsoftware integration capabilities is still better positioned. Third, the market is concerned that large OEMs will insource the stack, reducing the role ofthird-party suppliers. BYD's in-house chip ambition has become the focal point of this debate.This is understandable: BYD is the largest and most capable OEM in China, with unmatchedscale, vertical integration and execution. However, we think the market's interpretation is toolinear.OEM insourcing changestheparticipationmodel,and mightcreatemore value;it doesnot necessarily eliminate platform suppliers. The core mismatch is this: the market is asking whether Horizon can keep selling the samecontent in the same way. We think the more important question is whether Horizon can becomeembedded in OEM autonomy architecture in different yet likely more value-added ways as theindustry moves into scaled deployment. BYD:threat,validation,orstresstest? We discussed in our Horizon initiation (Horizon Robotics: Initiate at Buy: Specialist AD supplierin the right lane, 23 June 2025) that the OEMs' decision to develop in-house AD chips dependson three keyfactors: speed of adoption, scale, and software capabilities.Now the industry ADadoption speed is on track amid weak auto demand, with BYD still China's largest auto OEM,and should not be viewed as binary.Even as BYD increases in-house AD chip development, itsevolving software capability and rising AD penetration suggest Horizon still has room toparticipate in selected layers of BYD's capacity build-up