中国CPU：海光信息——CPU复兴浪潮下的核心受益者

China CPU: Hygon - the key China beneficiary for the CPUrenaissance like Hygon's unique position as the only alternativex86 server CPUvendorto Intel/AMD,allowing the companyto gain share in China for the next five years. We discuss the marketopportunity and tech comparison for Hygon in this report, our China x86 server CPU modelcanbedownloadedhere.OutperformonHygon,PTCNY450. +85221232654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com +85221232626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com CPUTAMwillexpandfromroughlyUS$39bnin2025toUS$223bnby2030,asagenticAl shifts data-center architectures from being GPU-centric to increasingly CPU-intensive.We expect the CPU:GPUratio to graduallymovefrom 1:8 nowto 1:1 in 2030.Within China,x86serverCPUTAMisexpectedtoincreasefromUS$7bn in2025toUS$27bnby2030.Whilegrowth may lag global markets from 2025-28 due to supply constraints, we expectameaningful reacceleration from2028 onward,as domestic supply capacity expands andAIDCinvestmentaccelerates. +85221232665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Accelerating localization andtightening supplyofforeignCPUsshoulddrivesubstantial share gainsfor Hygon.China's first wave of CPU localization was driven byXinchuang policies, where Hygon already enjoys a unique position as the only domesticx86 serverCPUprovider.Webelieveasecond,morecommerciallydrivenlocalizationwave will emerge from 2027onward as Chinese CSPs increasingly adopt domestic CPU.Rapid Al infrastructure expansion is tightening AMD and Intel CPU supply globally,withavailable capacity increasingly allocated to large U.S.hyperscalers. As global vendors'supply availability in China becomes less predictable,CSPs will have stronger incentives toqualifydomestic alternatives,just likewhathappenedtothe Al chips.Hygon also enjoys aunique CPU+Alchipecosystem thatthey canbundlebothof them to improve the sales ofboth chips.Weforecast Hygon's market share byvalue in China x86server CPUmarkettorisefrom19%in2025to36%by2030. Hygon'sCPUperformanceisonly2-3yearsbehind Intel/AMD,andwascontinuouslyimproving even without AMD support.Despitelosingaccesstofurther AMD technologysupport after its 2019 Entity List designation, Hygon has continued to advance itsx86 CPU roadmap independently. We estimate the technology gap versus global x86leaders has beenmaintained at 2-3 years over the pastfew years.Even with that gap, itsproducts remain sufficientlycompetitivefora growing range of workloads,able to addressperformance upgrade, further expanding Hygon's addressable market beyond its traditionalXinchuang customerbaseand supportingbroaderadoptionamong CSPandgovernmentsupported AIDCs. WeremainOutperformonHygonwitha CNY45oPT.As the only credibledomesticx86server CPU supplier in China, Hygon is uniquely positioned to benefit from both a rapidlyexpanding CPUTAMand acceleratinglocalization. benefit fromChina's accelerating Al infrastructurebuildout and CPU localization trend.We expect agentic Alto drive anupwardrevision to China's CPUTAM,withHygon as a keybeneficiary.Hygon'stech gapvs Global leaders has beenmaintained at 2-3years,allowingthecompanytoaddress about half of China's TAM.As the upcoming C86-G5narrows the performance gapwithglobal peers,we expect Hygon's addressablemarkettofurther expand beyond Xinchuang intothemuch largerCSPsegment,supporting sustainedmarket sharegains in China overthe coming years. few years.We expect C86-G5 to achieve a meaningful performance upgrade, further expanding Hygon's SAMpenetration withintheTAMfromthecurrent~50%level The GlobalCPURenaissanceboosted byAgentic Al.ARM vs.x86: rising competition, but the x86 moat endures..6AcceleratinglocalizationinChina..7Chinax86serverCPUTAMexpansion-Ataleoftwogrowthphases.Hygon's share gain through localization -Xinchuang now and csP next...1Hygon: the only x86 alternative to Intel/AMD globally.14Hygon's technology foundation-the AMD deal...14Hygon's product roadmap-innovation beyond AMD.Comparing Hygon's x86 CPU vs Intel/AMD.17Feasibility of G5 performance breakthrough...20Hygon's SAMExpansion:FromXinchuangtoCSP21 DETAILS GLOBALANDCHINAX86CPUTAM THEGLOBALCPU RENAISSANCEBOOSTEDBYAGENTICAITheglobal server CPUmarket is undergoing a structural expansionqualitatively different from priorupgradecycles.We estimatetheglobal serverCPUTAMwill expandfrom$39Bn in2025to$223Bnby2030,drivenprimarilybytheemergenceofAgentic Alasa fundamentally CPU-intensive computeparadigm.We have identifiedthis trendasthe“CPURenaissance",mainlydriven by Agentic Al. Traditional LLMworkloads and Agentic Al workloads havedifferentdemands fromdata centerhardware.TraditionalLLMs areGPU-centric.Trainingandbatch inferencebothmap cleanly ontomassivelyparallelmatrix operations that GPUs excelat. During the 2021-25 period of LLM scale-up, the GPU's role dominated, while the CPU was a supporting actor. This wasreflected in CSP cluster configurations: the GPU-to-CPU ratio in CSP training clusters rose from roughly 3:1 in 2020 to around Agentic Alinverts this dynamic.Agentic Al involves systems ofautonomous Al