中国半导体：海光是CPU复兴浪潮核心受益标的

China CPU: Hygon - the key China beneficiary for the CPUrenaissance Agentic AI is leading to a new ear that we call “The CPU Renaissance”. Within China, welike Hygon’s unique position as the only alternative x86 server CPU vendor to Intel/AMD,allowing the company to gain share in China for the next five years. We discuss the marketopportunity and tech comparison for Hygon in this report, our China x86 server CPU modelcan be downloaded here.Outperform on Hygon, PT CNY 450. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Agentic AI is driving the expansion of global server CPU TAM, creating a much largeropportunity for Hygon than investors currently appreciate.We estimate global serverCPU TAM will expand from roughly US$39bn in 2025 to US$223bn by 2030, as agenticAI shifts data-center architectures from being GPU-centric to increasingly CPU-intensive.We expect the CPU:GPU ratio to gradually move from 1:8 now to 1:1 in 2030. Within China,x86 server CPU TAM is expected to increase from US$7bn in 2025 to US$27bn by 2030.While growth may lag global markets from 2025-28 due to supply constraints, we expecta meaningful reacceleration from 2028 onward, as domestic supply capacity expands andAIDC investment accelerates. Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Accelerating localization and tightening supply of foreign CPUs should drivesubstantial share gains for Hygon.China’s first wave of CPU localization was driven byXinchuang policies, where Hygon already enjoys a unique position as the only domesticx86 server CPU provider. We believe a second, more commercially driven localizationwave will emerge from 2027 onward as Chinese CSPs increasingly adopt domestic CPU.Rapid AI infrastructure expansion is tightening AMD and Intel CPU supply globally, withavailable capacity increasingly allocated to large U.S. hyperscalers. As global vendors’supply availability in China becomes less predictable, CSPs will have stronger incentives toqualify domestic alternatives, just like what happened to the AI chips. Hygon also enjoys aunique CPU+AI chip ecosystem that they can bundle both of them to improve the sales ofboth chips. We forecast Hygon’s market share by value in China x86 server CPU market torise from 19% in 2025 to 36% by 2030. Hygon’s CPU performance is only 2-3 years behind Intel/AMD, and was continuouslyimproving even without AMD support.Despite losing access to further AMD technologysupport after its 2019 Entity List designation, Hygon has continued to advance itsx86 CPU roadmap independently. We estimate the technology gap versus global x86leaders has been maintained at 2-3 years over the past few years. Even with that gap, itsproducts remain sufficiently competitive for a growing range of workloads, able to addressroughly half of China market. Looking ahead, we expect C86-G5 to deliver a meaningfulperformance upgrade, further expanding Hygon’s addressable market beyond its traditionalXinchuang customer base and supporting broader adoption among CSP and governmentsupported AIDCs. We remain Outperform on Hygon with a CNY450 PT.As the only credible domestic x86server CPU supplier in China, Hygon is uniquely positioned to benefit from both a rapidlyexpanding CPU TAM and accelerating localization. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateHygon Outperform, PT CNY 450. As the only credible domestic x86 server CPU vendor, Hygon is well positioned tobenefit from China's accelerating AI infrastructure buildout and CPU localization trend. We expect agentic AI to drive an upwardrevision to China's CPU TAM, with Hygon as a key beneficiary. Hygon’s tech gap vs Global leaders has been maintained at 2-3years, allowing the company to address about half of China’s TAM. As the upcoming C86-G5 narrows the performance gap withglobal peers, we expect Hygon's addressable market to further expand beyond Xinchuang into the much larger CSP segment,supporting sustained market share gains in China over the coming years. EXHIBIT 1:Hygon has broadly maintained a stable performance gap versus global peers at 2-3 years over the pastfew years. We expect C86-G5 to achieve a meaningful performance upgrade, further expanding Hygon's SAMpenetration within the TAM from the current ~50% level Table Of Contents Global and China x86 CPU TAM.........................................................................................................................................................................................3The Global CPU Renaissance boosted by Agentic AI..........................................................................................................................................3ARM vs. x86: rising competition, but the x86 moat endures............................................................................................................................ 6Accelerating localization in China.........................................