中国半导体功率半导体：供给紧张、价格上行、利润率修复

Power Semi: Tight Supply, Better Pricing,Stronger Margins Rating Change 30 June 2026 Pricehikesastheinflection point for power semi upcycleWe see China’s power semiconductor cycle entering a more constructive phase given 1) brighter growth outlook led by AI related application,including AIDC/ AI servers; and 2)gross margin expansion opportunitiesdriven by price hike due to supply tightness (esp.for low-/mid-voltage power semislike MOSFET) in the supply chain. We expectfurtherpotential price hikesof power semi devices in 2H26Eto act as an additional re-ratingcatalyst for the sector, given limited incremental capacity for low-/mid-voltagepowersemiincludingMOSFETs and global suppliers appear to be reallocating capacity towardhigher-value AI/AIDC applications, tightening supply for traditional industrial customers.Among power semisvendors in China, we expect companies with higher revenueexposure tolow-/mid-voltagepower semilikeMOSFETs/small signalscould benefitmorefromsupply shortage(Exhibit 10). EquityChinaSemiconductors Daley Li, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5365daley.li2@bofa.com Harry Zhuang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7998harry.zhuang@bofa.com Compute &data storage to lead the demand growthChina’spower discrete market size was US$13.2bn in 2025 and we expect it to grow at Exhibit1:We revised up PO for NCEPower and Silan, and upgrade Silan toNeutralChina power semis: PO and rating change a CAGR of10% to US$17.7bn in 2028E. By application segment, compute & storagecould be the fastest-growing segment (+30% CAGR) in 2025-28E, followed by industrial(12%) and automotive (8%).For AI demand, the key mechanism is notonlymoreservers,butalsosignificantlyhigher power density per GPUand per rack. Thisshiftsdemandtoward higher-value low-voltage MOSFETs/DrMOS for board-level VRMs(voltageregulatormodule), higher-voltage MOSFETs/SiC/GaN for PSUs(powersupplyunits)andrack power, and more protection/conversion devicesforfuture 800VHVDC architectures. details Emerging supply shortage,disciplined capacity growthSurging downstream demand(AIDC)and rising upstream costshavejointly drivena new round of price hike for the industryYTD (Feb-Mar and May-Jun), prompting multiplevendors including NCE Power, Silan, CR Microet al.to raise product prices by 10-20%(Exhibit 6). We expect more price hikesin 2H26E given prolonged lead time andhighlyutilized capacityby domestic powersemiIDM players.And,we see more disciplined newcapacity expansion for domestic power semis IDMs in the next few years.According toour industry checks, we see6% capacity expansionCAGRin 2025-2028Efor Silan, CRMicro, CRRC Times, Yangjie, Jiejie Micro and StarPoweron an aggregate basis. See listof acronyms inExhibit42 Raise est./PO,Buy NCE Power, Upgrade Silan to NeutralWe reiterate our Buy rating onNCE Power, as we viewitas a direct beneficiary of the tightening low-/mid-voltage MOSFET cycle. Improving demand, broader ASP increasesand incremental third-party wafer capacityislikely to support stronger revenueandmarginmomentum into 2H26E.Raise price objective to RMB119 from RMB47.WeupgradeSilanto Neutral from Underperformand raise our PO to RMB57 from RMB20.3,givenGPMexpansion following recent price hikes. However, with the stock trading at60x12-month forwardP/E, we believeitsvaluation has largely priced in the positives. Exhibit3:Compute & datastoragetolead the growth, followed byindustrial and autoChina power discrete market size forecast by application(US$bn) Exhibit2:China power discrete market is expected to grow at aCAGR of 10% in 2025-28EChina power discrete market size (US$ bn) Exhibit4:Power semis capacity of leading domestic IDMs isexpected to see 4-7% expansion p.a., or 6% CAGR in 2025-28ETotal power semis capacity of leading domestic IDMs (k wpm, 8'' equiv) Capex trends of key global power semis players (US$mn) Recent price increase by China and globalpower semis companies Rating, PO and estimates changeWesee China’s power semiconductor cycle entering an upcycle,supported by AI/AIDC- led demandgrowth and margin expansion driven by price hikes amid supply tightness inlow-/mid-voltage power semiconductors such as MOSFETs.Accordingly, we raise ourFY26-28E earnings estimatesforNCE Powerby 6-28% andfor Silanby52-63%.Weraise our POto RMB119(from RMB47) forNCE Power, based on55x 2H27-1H28E P/E(prior32x 2H26-1H27E P/E),10% higher than theaverage of China power semis peersdue to faster revenue growth.We upgradeSilanto Neutral from Underperform, givenGPMexpansion following recent price hikes, while its current valuationhas largely pricedin thepositives. Weraise our PO to RMB57 (from RMB20.3) based on50x2H27-1H28EP/E(prior36x2Q26-1Q27E P/E), in line withtheaverage of China power semis peers. Despite IDMs generally exhibithigher earningselasticityto productpricehikes,wepreferNCE PoweroverSilangiven1)higher revenue exposure to low-/mid-voltagepower semislike MOSFETs, whichcould benefit more from s