印度金融业关键指标

India Financials: Metrics that matter India’s banking sector enters the 1QFY27 earnings season with macro concerns stilldominating sentiment, even as operating fundamentals remain resilient. Recent trendssuggest growth, margins and asset quality are holding up better than feared, shifting thefocus toward company-specific execution and the sustainability of earnings momentum. Inthis report, we highlight the key sector debates and stock-specific metrics that we believematter for the long-term thesis and the relative stock performance over the coming quarters. Pranav Gundlapalle+91 226 842 1407pranav.gundlapalle@bernsteinsg.com Ishan Mittal+91 226 842 1442ishan.mittal@bernsteinsg.com Macro risks easing at the margin:India's economy remains resilient, with 7.7% real GDPgrowth in FY26, inflation remaining in line with RBI's 4% target, and fiscal trends in linewith historical norms. While trade deficits, FII outflows and geopolitical uncertainty creatednear-term pressures, RBI measures and the recent West Asia ceasefire have improved theexternal outlook, with a>100bps decline in CD rates helping ease funding costs. Anirudh Gupta+91 226 842 1456anirudh.gupta@bernsteinsg.com Banking fundamentals remain resilient despite macro uncertainty:System creditgrowth remains strong at ~18% YoY, supported by broad-based momentum acrossindustrial, services and secured retail lending. Margin and asset-quality concerns alsoappear contained, with improving funding conditions, widening loan–deposit spreads andbenign credit trends supporting profitability. Metrics that matter: -At a sector level, margin pressures remain a key monitorable, but widening loan-depositspreads and rising sector LDRs suggestlimited downside risk to bank margins despiterecent macro volatility. - Additionally, thePSB–PVB performance gapremains a key sector debate, especially asprivate banks regain earnings momentum while the key drivers of PSB outperformance—surplus liquidity and ultra-low credit costs—begin to fade. We continue to expect a gradualconvergence in growth and profitability between PSBs and PVBs over the coming quarters. Stock-specific metrics:At a stock level, investor attention will remain sharply skewedtowards bank-specific priorities: HDFC Bank’s ability to translate healthy loan anddeposit growth into NII growth while navigating recent leadership changes, ICICI Bank’ssustainability of improving loan growth and RoA as credit costs normalize, Axis Bank’smargin trajectory and credit-cost sustainability following its sharp re-rating, and Kotak’sability to defend margins amid slower growth and ongoing management transition. For SBI, the sustainability of strong growth momentum and headline RoA will be key, whilecontinued improvement in credit costs and thus RoA remains the primary monitorable forIndusInd. For Bajaj Finance, the focus will be on further moderation in credit costs andprogress in newer lending segments, while receivables growth and mix remain the keydrivers for SBI Cards. For Paytm, net payment margins and momentum in financial services revenue will be criticalfor the profitability narrative, while for AHFCs, continued improvement in disbursementgrowth and asset quality will remain the key indicators to watch. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IIB as Outperform; ICICI Bank, SBI and KMB as Market-Perform. Among non-banks, we ratePaytm as Outperform ; Bajaj Finance and SBI Cards as Underperform. Within AHFCs, we rate Aadhar, Homefirst and Aptus asOutperform, Aavas and PNBHF as Market-Perform. Links to other recent reports: 6 Jul 2026 - India Financials: Can ICICI follow Axis?4 Jul 2026 - Quick Take: HDFCB 1Q27- The balancing act continues24 Jun 2026 - India Financials: Is a banking license worth it?17 Jun 2026 - India Financials: How retail underwriting works - Key takeaways from our webinar17 Jun 2026 - India Payments: MDR on UPI — Déjà vu, but this time closer?10 Jun 2026 - India Financials: PVBs vs. PSBs (4/n) – Beginning of the End of Outperformance10 Jun 2026 - RBI’s FCNR Push: Implications for Banks, Bonds and the INR8 Jun 2026 - India Financials: Do PVBs have an underwriting edge in retail lending?4 Jun 2026 - India Financials: Where are the margins headed? (1/n)2 Jun 2026 - Kotak: Takeaways from management interaction26 May 2026 - India Financials: AHFCs- The tide begins to turn DETAILS THE MACRO BACKDROP •India's economy maintained a healthy growth trajectory in FY26, with real GDP expanding by 7.7%, reflecting continuedresilience in economic activity. However, a sharp moderation in inflation during the year led to a significant decline in nominalgrowth, which slowed to 8.9% (Exhibit 1). •Inflation has since begun to trend higher, driven primarily by a rebound in food prices, with both headline and core inflationconverging towards the RBI's 4% target. Although inflation expectations rose sharply following the West Asia conflict, therecent ceasefire is expect