印度：100个增长指标：以及通胀和财政空间的馈赠

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MDDI (P) 005/01/2025 MDDI (P) 006/09/2024 MDDI (P) 004/10/2024 MDDI (P) 020/10/2024◆1Q25 GDP growthhasbenefittedfromaninformal sectorconsumptionuptick, though formal has been weaker◆For the rest of the year, lower inflation couldimprovepurchasing power, but equally important …◆… allowthegovernment to appropriate some of the oil price“bounty”, helping fiscalpolicybecome more countercyclicalWeupdate our100indicatorsdatabase, which maps high frequency indicatorsto varioussectors,and gives athoroughand sequentialpicture of growth.Here’s what wefind:The March quarter(1Q25)wasa notchbetterthanbefore,with66% of the indicatorsgrowingpositively(versus64% and 61% in the previous two quarters).Informal sectorconsumption led the charge, benefitting from a rise in statecapex(in March), agoodwinter crop, higherreal rural wages,andimprovedruraltermsoftrade.On the otherhand, urban consumption indicators,such as consumer durablesproduction andimports,were softer.As such, we expect1Q25 GVA to improve gradually (6.4% y-o-y versus6.2%in 4Q24). However,the government’sfalling subsidy bill(whichusescash instead ofaccrual accounting)is likely to buoy net indirect taxes, pushing GDP growth much higher(7.1% y-o-y versus 6.2% a quarter ago).Recall GDP = GVA + indirect taxes–subsidies.April looks a shade weaker.We have gotathirdof theactivitydata forApriland64% ofthe indicatorsaregrowingpositively(versus 66% in1Q25).Informal sector consumptionseems to have picked up furtherin the month(proxied by domesticnon-cessGST).Butformal sector consumption seems to have weakened further (proxied byGSTcess). TheMayIndia Flash PMIindicates that the rate of growth in manufacturing outputand newexport orders,though strong,hasmoderateda bit.However, serviceremainrobust.In good news, the rest of the year willlikelyget supportfrom lower inflationof about2.5% for the nextsixmonths. With publicgranaries stocked up and monsoon rains likelyto be favourable, food inflation is set to remain low. Core inflationas wellwill likely remainrange-bound, led by weaker commodity prices, softer growth,a stronger rupee (againsttheUSdollar), and imported disinflation from China.Theobvious benefitforgrowthfrom lower inflationwill bevia increased real purchasingpower of households and lower input costs forcorporates. A lessobvious but equallyimportant benefit could be via fiscal finances.True, there are pressures on the FY26 fiscaldeficittarget from lower-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth and direct tax buoyancy,andhigherdefencespending;however,there are offsetting factorsas well, specifically ahigher-than-budgeted RBI dividend (INR2.7trnversus cINR2.3trnBE).Most importantly,however,the option for the government to appropriatesome of the fall in global oil pricesby raisingoil excise tax. Given inflation is already low, we estimate that if the governmentusurps half of the oil“bounty”instead of lowering pump prices, it will not just meet thefiscal deficittarget but also have some extra funds available forgrowth support.India:100 indicators of growthAnd the gift of inflation and fiscal space Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s),economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi ChaudharyImportant disclosuresThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer tobuy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this documentis general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives,financial situation or needs of any particular investor.Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider theappropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives