美元长期走势：地缘政治与技术较量

Mallika SachdevaHead of FX ThematicsManaging DirectorFX Research+44 20 7545 1941mallika.sachdeva@db.com July2026 The USD has been losing ground in global reserves–mostly to gold But foreign ownership of US equities has never been higher Foreigners own a decreasing share of Treasuries, but are increasing their share of US equities Foreignprivatedemand has been supporting Treasuries-official support has long waned Last year marked a rotation in US financing towards equity over debt The convenience yield on long-term Treasury debt has declined Less exorbitant privilege could mean US yields begin to price in the weaker external position The USD’s relationship to risk is changing which is key to dollar risk premium and hedging The USD is still near the top of its valuation cycle… …mostly against Asian currencies The dollar’s rise as a global reserve asset was a function of the enormous accumulation of EMUSD reserves in the 1990s and 2000s… …which coincided with the dramatic growth in world trade …and the “Great Moderation” in US economic fundamentals The US fiscal balance sheet is deteriorating, while private sector profitability is improving Gold is seeing a resurgence in central bank reserves: how far can this go? The return of history All central bank gold purchases since 2008 have been by emerging markets EM central banks still only own half the gold of DM central banks EM countries that are less geopolitically aligned with the West hold more gold in reserves US provision of global public goods including the security umbrella has been in question Countries that are more dependent on US security have historically held more USD reserves Reserve currency status is very much linked to military power Additional defence spending by US allies would not be trivial Money may well come home: who can already credibly repatriate? The geopolitical equilibrium in the Gulf will change Turning to energy…..The US and China have very different energy strategies China is ramping up on renewables, while the US is doubling down on fossil fuels The Strait of Hormuz will fundamentally change how countries think aboutaccessto energy Keeping the USD as the world’s payments currency is key: especially for oil.Will the petrodollar survive? There were already signs of instability to petrodollar foundationsSaudi Arabia sells four times as much oil to China now as to the US The US is no longer the biggest source of demand in global oil markets…. Reduced use of the dollar in trade invoicing in countries rotating away from US alignment Will the US move to becoming a dominant oil supplier help ensure pricing dominance? Latin America had become a battleground for oil The dollar still appears dominant in cross-border activity. Are there undercurrents? The correspondent banking system has needed an overhaul…. The number of active banking corridors has been declining, especially in the Global South Most growth in world trade is now between China and the Global South China has ambitions to internationalize the RMB, and shifting invoicing and payments systemsare a key focus The US is banking on stablecoins which could change cross-border payments China may struggle to complete in a stablecoin world Europe has a better chance as the world’s biggest trading bloc, but more needs to be done The next frontier: tokenization. How will it change global access to US capital markets? Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s).Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalyst(s)hasnotandAnalystCertification willnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.MallikaSachdeva. AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively'DeutscheBank').Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscus