全球半导体行业：车规芯片市场追踪

EuropeGlobalNorth America Auto Semi market tracker - pricing isgaining further momentum Johannes Schaller Auto Semis pricing has potential to increase going forward due to low keycomponent inventories and strong competition for capacity from AI datacenter Associate Director of Equity Research - Germany Ross Seymore In our last Auto Semis update from April (here), we pointed out an improving pricingenvironment for Auto Semis for the first time in over three years. We saw this asdriven by: 1) reduced inventories of key Auto Semis across supply chains, 2) spill-over effects from AI-driven chip demand in categories like mid-voltage powerMOSFETs but also memory (including specialized memory such as NOR Flash), and3) continued strong content growth driven by SDVs (for high-end MCUs andEthernet components, in particular). The above-mentioned areas, as well as analogcomponents, remain the key drivers of a better pricing environment, in our view,while the situation for higher-voltage power semis for xEV drivetrains remains onthe other end of the spectrum but is also set to improve into 2027 with demanddrivers from AI datacenter accelerating from next year out to 2030 (SSCBs, SSTsand 800V architecture more broadly, as discussed here), Overall, we believe AutoSemis pricing is gaining further momentum on the back of the aforementioneddrivers and despite a mixed Automotive end market. Our industry conversationsindicate only low-single-digit price declines this year (vs. normal low- to mid-single-digit), but with scope for price increases (even on company Auto Semi portfoliolevels and not just individual components) as we go into next year. Paired withongoing strong content growth from SDV, ADAS and to some extent xEVs(especially in Europe), we believe the Auto Semis market can return to >10% growththis year and build further momentum in '27. Given margins for many players in thismarket remain somewhat depressed this year, we continue to see strong operatingleverage ahead from better capacity utilization (helped by capacity reallocationtowards AI), as well as pricing and we remain positive on the broader space,especially names with a strong AI story and potential to grow into existing capacity/cleanroom space. Our top picks are Infineon, NXP, onsemi and STMicro. Research Analyst Robert Sanders Research Analyst Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst Edison Yu Research Analyst Nicolas Herms Research Analyst DJ SebastianResearch Associate Yusuf JamalResearch Associate Kunal GuptaResearch Associate We value stocks in the sector on a P/E, EV/Sales and/or DCF basis, benchmarking themultiples vs. peers and/or expected growthrates. Key downside/upside sector risks: amacro/auto production slowdown orimprovement, and design and/or marketshare losses or gains. From destocking to restocking as allocation fears are resurfacing We believe general component and Auto semi destocking across the supply chainhas largely played out in recent quarters. Our inventory analysis of the tier 1 autosupply chain shows a slight increase in $ inventory value sequentially in Q1/26 andinventory as a percentage of sales in Q1/26 increased to 12.2% (vs. ~12% in Q4/25).Our industry conversations point to a desire by tier 1s and OEMs to rebuild strategicinventory in certain areas with some industry discussions raising fears overallocation and "golden screw" key component shortages ahead again given thestrong demand from AI datacenter for semis capacity. 7 July 2026SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors From destocking to restocking into Q2 and H2/26Looking back at the recent near-term picture and relative performance in Q1 (in US dollar terms), Auto semi players saw a revenue increase of +1% q/q, on fairly leaninventory conditions, partly offset by other macro factors. On y/y basis, theacceleration stood at +11%, back in-line with the five-year average growthtrendline. Dynamics by companies are interesting in hindsight with industrybellwethers such as Qualcomm (+20% q/q), Analog Devices (+8% q/q) and Renesas(+4% q/q) seeing strong growth while Infineon (+1% q/q), Texas Instruments (flatq/q), onsemi (flat q/q) and Rohm (flat q/q) showed flat to modest growth. STMicro(-9% q/q) and NXP (-5% q/q) witnessed a sequential decline in revenue growth.Among smaller companies, Lattice Semi (+35% q/q), Mobileye (+25% q/q),Ambarella (+13% q/q) saw strong growth, while Elmos (-10% q/q), Melexis (-6%q/q) and Nvidia (-5% q/q) saw a sequential decline. For Q2/26e, our bottom-upmodel suggests +5% revenue growth sequentially, well above the five-year averageperformance (+3% q/q), implying the beginning of a restocking cycle that shouldlast into H2, in our view. 7 July 2026SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Source : Bloomberg Finance LP (pricing as on 3rd July 2026) 7 July 2026SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Auto Semi revenues up 11% y/y in Q1/26; ~11% y/y growth expected forQ2/26e Long-term content-driven growth story remains intact,cyclical bottom beh