记忆追踪器（6月）：6月进一步提价，但涨幅速度在3QCY26期间放缓

MEMORY TRACKER (Jun): Further price rise in June, but with thepace of the rise moderating into 3QCY26 This monthly tracker (download datasethere) summarizes contract/spot price data releasedby TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compares that with our model & investor expectation. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com DRAM: June contract price rose further MoM & indicated 74% QoQ increase forconventional DRAM contract price in 2QCY26. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Spot price: DRAM spot price further increased in June following the recovery in May. PCDRAM spot price rebounded by 5.6-11.5% MoM while server DRAM was up 6.1-26.4%MoM. Notably, spot price of Server DDR5 was particularly strong in the past month, but weexpect the volume is too small to move the needle. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Contract price: DRAM contract prices in June rose further vs. May & indicated 2QCY26price to be 74% higher than 1QCY26, with 49% for PC, 67% for Server, ~80% for Mobile& ~85% for Consumer. Notably, price increase is still expected to decelerate into 3QCY26.On LTA, suppliers have mostly concluded the negotiations with US CSPs. TrendForceobserved that the price ceiling of LTA may be higher for other suppliers, but for Micron maybe near its 2QCY26 level, as Micron prefers longer contract durations. Discussion withChinese CSPs will continue into 3QCY26. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com NAND: Wafer contract price was only slightly higher MoM, but the overall 2QCY26NAND price increase will be supported by SSD and mobile NAND. Spot price: Unlike DRAM spot price, NAND wafer spot price further dropped by 3-4% inJune after a stable May though wafer is a small portion of the NAND market. Contract price: Wafer contract price was up only 0.3-3.7% MoM, but the overall 2QCY26NAND contract price is still expected to rise by ~60% vs. 1QCY26, thanks to c. 70-80%price increase in Mobile NAND & SSD, & c. 24-29% increase for wafer. Similar to DRAMprice, NAND price is also expected to continue rising but at a narrower pace into 3QCY26. In summary, both DRAM & NAND contract prices rose mildly MoM and still indicateda major price increase for 2QCY26.Server demand continued to absorb incrementalsupply allocated by suppliers, while demand destruction in consumer segment has beenmore limited than feared due to pulled-forward purchases. Spot price also appeared to bestabilizing. Nevertheless, we still believe demand destruction in consumer segment willeventually happen & the pace of the price increase should narrow notably into 3QCY26.LTAs can reduce the impact of a correction, and we expect more clarity on these LTAs asmore are signed. We model memory prices to gradually peak & begin to normalize from2HCY27 and into CY28. SeeGlobal Memory: Memory becoming a burden of AI too?andMemory: What do New Memory LTAs mean for sustainability of earnings andmultiples? Raising SNDK TP to $3000for details. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 440,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 3,300,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$1,300.00. KIOXIA: We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 40,000. SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $3,000.00 DETAILS TrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe Jun 2026 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory PriceTracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average pricechange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples but will be additionally considered so that we can compare the overall ASP with ourprojection. Spot price is noisy but we also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Pleasefeel free to find ourmost recent market reviewand download our industry and company models from the links below. •CoWoS/HBM Model•DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron Model•KIOXIA Model•SanDisk Model June contract price rose further from May and suggested in 2QCY26 conventional DRAM ASP will be 74% above1QCY26. Spot price: •PC DRAM: PC DRAM chip spot price further increased in June, up by 5.6% and 11.5% MoM for DDR4 and DDR5,respectively (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6). Distributors had sold some inventory earlier, and thatcaused spot price to correct somehow. However, it appeared that the supply released from this has been digested, andspot price hence stabilized & further rose in June. •Server DRAM: Server DRAM module spot price was up by 6.1-26.4% MoM, in which DD