苹果追踪器（五月）：iPhone份额持续增长，但单位增长放缓至2% YoY和略低于第三财季预期

APPLE TRACKER (May): iPhone share gains continue, but unitgrowth slows to 2% YoY and modestly below FQ3 expectations The Apple Tracker breaks down the latest data on iPhone sales and services fromCounterpoint and Sensor Tower, and analyzes what this means for Apple and the supplychain. For more on our Apple views see ourApple Deep Dive. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Apple's May sell-through units were up 2% YoY and 1% MoM.Nearly all marketsdelivered positive YoY sell-through revenue growth, with Japan and emerging marketsposting the strongest gains. China was the only exception, with sell-through revenue down16% YoY (but up 30% MoM), marking the first YoY contraction since the launch of theiPhone 17 series due to weaker “618” promotions this year. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com iPhone’s May ASP slightly declined by 1% YoY, after six months of consecutive ASPgrowth.The strength of the iPhone 17 cycle contributed to ASP strength over the pastsix months, with the growth trend inflecting up significantly. However, May ASP declinedmodestly, reversing the positive trend. We believe this is likely due to mix such as the iPhone17e and 16e sales. In May 2026, the 17e and 16e had a combined unit sale of 1.9mn,higher than the 1.7mn units in May 2025. Accordingly, the e series unit mix as % of totalincreased from 10% in May 2025 to 11% in May 2026. Being much lower ASP than therest of the iPhone family, the e series likely contributed to the modest decline in ASP. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Units and revenue tracking for the first two months of FQ3 are running modestlybelow expectations.Combined April and May iPhone sell-in volumes totaled 35.9 millionunits, which is 67% of the consensus FQ3'26 shipment forecast of 53.3 million units and64% of our 56.1 million unit estimate. This compares with a historical FQ3 average of 72%,indicating a slightly slower start to the quarter. Slightly worse, the first 2 months of FQ3iPhone revenue reached $31.4 billion. This represents 58% of both the consensus FQ3'26revenue expectation and our forecast, below the historical FQ3 average of 69%. Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com For foundry/TSMC:Lower “618” discount on iPhone 17 & weaker sales of iPhone 17ehas made TSMC’s N3P’s shipment softer than the precedessor N3E’s for 2 months, butwe believe overall Apple still holds up better vs. its smartphone peers. Even if Apple orany mobile customers release leading-node capacity, the capacity will be refilled by AIapplications and TSMC won't experience revenue loss. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com For Memory:the DRAM content YoY increase was 27% in May, vs. 20% increase from2024 to 2025 on full-year basis. We will monitor how memory price hike affects this. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com For the rest of Apple’s supply chain:sentiment over Luxshare and Largan are strongas iPhone shipment is stronger than Android’s, and each of them have made steadilyprogress in AI-related business. ForSony, however, there will likely be no upgrades in CISthis year, and we see higher risk of share loss to Samsung in 2027. ForQualcomm, weare approaching the point where AAPL sales will likely take a sizeable step down as AAPLdiversifies away, with overall handset revenues potentially under pressure due to weakerAndroid performance on the back of rising memory prices, and Apple share gains (neither ofwhich is positive, especially as Apple increasingly internalizes). Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Apple:As the gateway to the Intelligence revolution benefiting from stronger than expected iPhone 17 demand, we rate AAPLOutperform with a price target of $350. SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $3,000. Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW440,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW3,300,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$1,300.00. TSMC:We rate TSMC Outperform with price target of NT$2,780.00. MediaTek:We rate MediaTek Outperform with price target of NT$4,380.00. Sunny Optical: We rate Sunny Optical Outperform, with PT = HK$94.00. Luxshare: We rate Luxshare Outperform, with PT = RMB86.00. Largan: We rate Largan Market-Perform, with PT = HK$5,150.00. Sony: We rate Sony (6748.JP) Market-Perform, PT = JPY 3,500.00. QCOM (MP, $235):Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds and numbers still appear high though thedatacenter na