威驰营销反馈：高确定性于噪音中

Weichai Power June30,2026 Marketing Feedback on Weichai: HighConviction Amid the Noise discussions largelycentered onWeichai.As majortechplayers step upAl capex and global peers raise AiDC guidance, our conviction on Weichaiproduct franchise,not a single diesel-backup story. Investor debate focusedon the earnings ramp from gas gensets and SOFC, legacy headwinds, andvaluation.Detailsbelow around 1k units in 2027, with execution risk focused more on overseas channel ramp-up andcustomer onboarding than on the product itself. The economics are compelling, in our view,withASPsof~$600k/MW (4xdiesel gensets)andestimatedGPMof~45%.Incrementalcapitalrequirements arelimited,asgasgensets sharemuchofthemanufacturingprocess withdiesel.Execution is trackingahead ofplan, with deliveries pulledforward to 3Q26.Thekey variable towatch is the pace of initial deliveries to end customers. Is SOFC a real earnings driver ora post-2028 option? We see SOFC moving closer to atangible earnings inflection rather than a distant option. Weichai has secured the key buildingblocks, including the Ceres license (Nov-25) and CE certification, while industry developments(i.e.Bloom/Oracle)help validatebroader end-market demand.Capacity is set to ramp from30MW in 2026 to 200MW in 2027,with upsideto 400-500MW,andto reach1GWby2030.Withbreakeven at ~100MW, the step-up to 200MW in 2027 should mark a critical inflection point.Project visibility already supports this level across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Korea and Europe,with North America under discussion. How concentrated is US channel risk following PSI's miss? Mgmt has confirmed PSI's orderbookis rescheduled, not reduced, so the weakness affects near term sentiment rather than theunderlying thesis. Generac remains a key US partner for Baudouin: the M55 platform powersGenerac'sdata centergenset range,supported bya s7oOm data center backlog,and a Junehyperscaleragreementcouldrepresent S600m+ofpotentialvaluein2027.Therelationshipisnon-exclusive,leavingroomforadditionaloEMpartnerships Relatedreport:AStructuralWinnerAmidtheGlobalDataCenterBoom Will BESSdisplace dieselbackup? BESSis constrainedbylimitedduration,while dieseloffersthe sustainedruntime hyperscalers need during extended outages,so near-term displacementrisk, in our view, is limited. Longer term, SoFC could become a common architecture, serving Al tailwinds remain in full stride. We fine-tuned our 2026/27E earnings to RMB14.7/21.6bn,asweraiseourAIDCengineshipmentforecaststo3.8k/6.3kunitsandalsoforecastsforSOFCshipments. Our SOTP-derived PTs are raised to RMB44.4/HKD50.8. Reiterate Buy as our toppick. Source: Company. Jefferie Xiaoyi Lei *|Equity Analyst85237671126|xiaoyi.lei@jefferies.com AaronWang*|EquityAnalyst+85237671121laaron.wang@jefferies.com Jefferies :NS6 deployment to enhance strong demandfor diesel engines . Mix shift to high-displacement engines will improve operationalefficiency and GPM:Overseas demandrecoveryandlow baseeffectfromKion Base Case,CNY44.2, +69% Upside Scenario,CNY52.6, +101% Downside Scenario,CNY22.4, -14% are expected to reach 13.6k/16.2k units in2026/27, including 2.8k/4.2k units for AIDCapplications.. We expect HDT sales in China to reach 1.1mnunits in 2026. Product mix of the company's HDT enginesshifts to high-margin products.:AIDC gas engines are scheduled for release bymid-26: Our PTs of RMB44.2/HKD50.8 are based onSOTP valuation,assigning RMB34.1/HKD39.2pershareto thepowergeneration business . Large-boreengineshipmentsmissexpectationsGas genset orders underperformKION's earnings recovery proves weaker thanexpectedOur PTs of RMB22.4/HKD25.7 are based ona SOTP valuation, assigning RMB7.4/HKD8.4per share to the power generation business. expectations. Large-bore engineshipmentsexceededexpectations.: Gas genset orders were stronger thanexpected.: KION deliveredabetter-than-expectedearnings recovery.OurPTsofRMB52.6/HKD60.5arebasedonaSOTP valuation,assigning RMB41.2/HKD49.9per share to the power generation business. Catalysts SustainabilityMatters :Higher-than-expected HDT sales volume.Increased adoption of LNG engines: Deepening cooperation with Sinotruk:Overseas demand recovery and Us capexcycle revival: More aggressive infrastructure fixed-assetinvestment Top Material Issue: 1. Technology & innovation: Technological R&D and innovation are critical to WeichaiSJTU to establish a joint research center for future commercial vehicle innovation.2. Safe production is the basic guarantee for an enterprise. Weichai Power should build Companytargets: 1. Achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutralty by 2060 along with thedecarbonizationgoal of China.2. Deepen refined management and improve operational quality Qs to Mgmt.: 2. How can energy management system help to decrease energy consumption in theproduction and how much cost are needed?3. What's the company's NEV HDT target in 2025/2030? Jefferies Jefferies Jefferies Weichai Power Weichai Power Co., Ltd is a company specialised i