宁波容百新能源科技2026上半年初步净利润1-1.2亿元，模型更新与维持

1H26 Preliminary NP at Rmb100-120mn; Model Update and MaintainNeutral Neutral Price (06 Jul 26 15:00)Rmb27.180Target priceRmb29.100↓from Rmb32.500Expected share price return7.1%Expected dividend yield0.7%Expected total return7.8%Market CapRmb19,426MUS$2,870M CITI’S TAKERonbay announced 1H26 preliminary results, with net profit at Rmb100- 120mn, vs. -Rmb68.4mn in 1H25, accounting for 21-26% of our full-yearforecast and 25-30% of Bloomberg consensus. Implied 2Q26 net profit atRmb88-108mn, vs. Rmb12mn in 1Q26 and -Rmb53mn in 2Q25, which isstrong. We expect the QoQ increase in 2Q26 net profit is mainly driven byincreasing NCM cathode sales and improving profitability of new businessincl. LFMP and sodium-ion battery cathode. We update our Ronbay modelpost its FY25 and 1Q26 results to factor in latest management guidance.We revise our earnings forecast by -22%/-7% to Rmb468/809mn for2026/27E and introduce 2028E earnings forecast of Rmb1,136mn. We use15.7x 2026E EV/EBITDA (vs. 14.6x previously), the historical averageminus 0.75x SD EV/EBITDA multiple, to derive the target price for Ronbayof Rmb29.10/sh, (vs. Rmb32.5/sh previously). We believe the stock’scurrent valuations look fair and Maintain Neutral. Jimmy Feng, CFAAC+852-2501-7588jimmy.feng@citi.com Jack Shang, CFA+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com 1H26 profit alert —Ronbay announced 1H26 preliminary results, with net profit atRmb100-120mn, vs. -Rmb68.4mn in 1H25, accounting for 21-26% of our full-yearforecast and 25-30% of Bloomberg consensus. Implied 2Q26 net profit at Rmb88-108mn, vs. Rmb12mn in 1Q26 and -Rmb53mn in 2Q25, which is strong. The companyattributed the YoY profit increase in 1H26 mainly to optimizing product mix andbusiness model, increasing profitability in NCM cathode business with higher sales tooverseas clients, and improving LFMP and sodium-ion cathode business. In our view,the QoQ increase in 2Q26 net profit is mainly driven by increasing NCM cathode salesand improving profitability of new business incl. LFMP and sodium-ion batterycathode. Anna Wanganna.d.wang@citi.com Cynthia Wucynthia.d.wu@citi.com Earnings revision —We update our Ronbay model post its FY25 and 1Q26 results to factor in latest management guidance. We revise our earnings forecasts by -22%/-7%to Rmb468/809mn for 2026/27E mainly due to lower unit gross profit forecast See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. considering increasing % of LFP cathode sales forecast with lower profit. We also introduce 2028E earnings forecast ofRmb1,136mn. Our 2026/27/28E earnings forecasts are +18%/+14%/+41% compared with Bloomberg consensus. Valuation —We believe forward EV/EBITDA is a suitable valuation approach to value Ronbay as it eliminates the uncertaintiesof the long-term operating forecast. Considering surplus supply in NCM cathode sector in 2026-27E, we use 15.7x 2026EEV/EBITDA (vs. 14.6x previously), the historical average minus 0.75x SD EV/EBITDA multiple, to derive the target price forRonbay of Rmb29.10/sh, (vs. Rmb32.50/sh previously). The TP implies 44.3x 26E P/E and 25.7x 27E P/E. We believe the stock’scurrent valuation looks fair and maintain Neutral. Source: Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Company descriptionRonbay Technology was established by two teams from China and South Korea in Sep 2014. Mr. Bai Houshan, the controlling shareholder and founder of Ronbay, together with Mr. Liu Xianglie, a Korean cathode material expert, began to investigate andestablish R&D and manufacturing bases in China and South Korea in 2014. The company was listed in Shanghai Stock ExchangeSTAR Market in Jul 2019 and is the first cathode material manufacturer in China to achieve mass production of NCM811. Investment strategyWe have a Neutral rating on Ronbay. We expect the ramp up of its LFMP and sodium-ion cathode factory will help to improve the profitability, while the NCM cathode demand growth remains weak. We believe the stock’s current valuations look fair andMaintain Neutral. Valuation We believe forward EV/EBITDA is a more suitable valuation approach to value Ronbay as it eliminates the uncertainties of thelong-term operating forecast. Considering surplus supply in NCM cathode sector in 2026-27E, we use 15.7x 2026E EV/EBITDA,the historical average minus 0.75x SD EV/EBITDA multiple, to derive the target price for Ronbay of Rmb29.10/sh. This targetprice is equivalent to 44.3x 26E P/E and 25.7x 27E P/E. Risks Our quant risk rating system assigns a High Risk rating for the stock, but we believe it is not warranted as we believe we arealready at the trough of the cycle and the competitive landscape shoud improve. Key upside risks include: 1) h