在线旅游行业2Q展望：需求复苏与估值吸引力下的投资机会

Guess Who's Back, Back Again - In2Q We have a favorable view towards the online travel spaceheading into 2Q earnings as expectations are low, Middle Easttensions are incooling-offmode, and we are already seeingsigns of travel demand picking up. At mid-teens P/E withimproving fundamentals, we would add to positions here. U.S. InternetPOSITIVEUnchanged U.S. InternetRoss Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US The Key Takeaway:The backdrop for OTA stocks is favorable right now based on: 1) traveldemand picking up into the summer season, 2) consensus estimates that appear low given thatmanagement teams guided when Middle East tensions (and jet fuel prices) were much higher,and 3) attractive valuations at mid-teens P/E. Industry data we track (see our Quarterly TravelTracker below) implies demand was healthy despite some impairment early in the quarter.Elevated airfare is coming down, capacity is improving, and U.S. domestic travel looksparticularly solid as evidenced by TSA/CBP passenger volume. Persistent revPAR strength isanother indication of a healthy domestic demand backdrop (link). Notably, even midscale/economy revPAR is positive in 2Qafterbeing under pressure much of last year, while the high-end continues to accelerate. With this domestic strength and the World Cup, we think stockswith the highest relative exposure to U.S. domestic trends (ABNB/EXPE) are well positionednear-term. AI disintermedation concerns have largely fallen by the wayside in conversations asgeopolitical concerns have taken center stage, but we don't think the OTAs are completely out ofthe woods on this front as agentic AI experiences continue to evolve in consumer internet. BKNGremains our preferred name in the group, but we'd note ABNB (improved product velocity) andEXPE (high domestic footprint) also look solid here. Alex Hughes+1 212 526 3069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US Michael DiSanto+1 212 526 1054michael.disanto@barclays.comBCI, US Alexander Kessinger+1 212 526 1324alexander.kessinger@barclays.comBCI, US Owen Clendenin+1 212 526 7518owen.clendenin@barclays.comBCI, US Below we detail our expectations for the upcoming 2Q prints. BKNG For 2Q, we are modeling 318m room nights (3% growth), right at the midpoint of the guidedrange, which could prove a tad conservative, and we are in-line with the Street on bookingsgrowth at 6% Y/Y (+4% ex-fx). While small, BKNG has the greatest direct and indirect exposure togeopolitical impacts relative to peers given its large EU and international footprint, and lowerrelative exposure to the stronger domestic trends. For 3Q guide, we expect 5-7% room nightsgrowth, 6-8% bookings and revenue growth, as well as 8-12% EBITDA growth. We'd expectBKNG to reiterate its FY guidance, which baked in a 2H recovery of demand. The valuation gapbetween BKNG and EXPE is far more narrow than in recent history (BKNG: 16x our FY27E GAAPEPS, EXPE: 14x our FY27E GAAP EPS), hence we like the risk-reward here. ABNB We sense a subtle but important improvement in the pace of execution at ABNB following someof the changes to the C-suite earlier this year. Product velocity is a key growth driver for acompany like ABNB, and that seems to be picking up in '26. 2Q should benefit from improvingdomestic trends on World Cup, geopolitical tensions abating, early traction in boutique hotel,and RNPL. For 2Q, we are modeling ~146m net nights and experiences booked, +8% Y/Y, broadlyin line with consensus, which could prove conservative, and we see ~$27b in GBV (+13% Y/Y).EBITDA could surprise to the upside again given the 1Q beat and 2Q guidance, and we aremodeling $1.24b for 2Q. For ABNB's 3Q outlook, we expect high-single-digit room night growth,high-single-digit GBV growth, revenue in the $4.5-$4.6b range, and EBITDA margin to expandyear-over-year. We would also expect ABNB to reiterate its FY targets. EXPE Expedia has the highest relative exposure to the US in its core OTA franchise, so we like the setup heading into 2Q based on the improving domestic travel trends since the last print. B2B hasbeen the bright spot for growth in recent quarters, and 2Q should be no exception. For EXPE, wesee 2Q bookings of $33b and $4.17b in revenue, slightly ahead of the midpoint of guide ranges.We are slightly ahead on room night growth (+6% vs. Street 5%). We are modeling $1b in EBITDA(24.9% margin), more or less in line with consensus which could prove conservative. Thepositive ADR environment helps drive better unit economics at EXPEofferingsome wiggle roomaround profitability. For 3Q we think the company may signal another quarter of stable toimproving trends, and we are modeling 4% bookings growth ex-FX, 5% revenue growth ex-FX,and slight EBITDA margin expansion. We'd expect the FY guidance to be reiterated across theboard given the tougher 2H comps, but with the improvement in domestic travel, this mayprove conservative. TRIP TRIP shares remain in event-driven mode following the sale of TheFork.After