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TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破NOV 11, 20252025年11⽉11⽇∙PAID∙已⽀付 Good morning.Futures -40bpssofter to start the day. BTC -1%.Asia saw mixed pxaction overnight: TPX +0.13%, NKY -0.14%, Hang Seng +0.18%, HSCEI +0.19%,SHCOMP -0.39%, Shenzhen -0.47%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.3%, Korea KOSPI +0.81%. 早上好。期货开盘下跌40个基点。⽐特币下跌1%。亚洲隔夜股市涨跌互现：东证指数上涨0.13%，⽇经指数下跌0.14%，恒⽣指数上涨0.18%，恒⽣中国企业指数上涨0.19%，上证指数下跌0.39%，深证成指下跌0.47%，台湾加权指数下跌0.3%，韩国综合指数上涨0.81%。 TheCRWVresults brought along with it two things that are relevant to the broader AItrade. First,on the topic of useful life,which is a main driving factor in how cheaply“compute” can be financed (Longer lives boost lower WACC, higher LTV; shorter livestighten financing yet accelerate replacement cycles). It was a concern Burry broughtup in a tweet yesterday: CRWV的结果带来了两件与更⼴泛的AI交易相关的事情。⾸先是关于使⽤寿命的话题，这是“计算”融资成本⾼低的主要驱动因素（更⻓的使⽤寿命会降低加权平均资本成本，提⾼贷款价值⽐；更短的使⽤寿命会收紧融资，但会加速更换周期）。这是Burry昨天在推⽂中提出的担忧： CRWVhad this to say in a mic drop yesterday: CRWV昨天发表了以下重磅⾔论： “Demand for AI cloud technology remains robust across generations of GPUs. Forexample, in Q3, we saw our first 10,000-plus H100 contract approaching expiration.Two quarters in advance, the customer proactively recontracted for theinfrastructure at a price within 5% of the original agreement.” “对各代GPU的AI云技术需求依然强劲。例如，在第三季度，我们看到我们的第⼀个超过10,000个H100的合同即将到期。提前两个季度，客户主动以与原始协议价格相差不到5%的价格重新签订了基础设施合同。” Does that settle the argument for good? 这是否彻底解决了争论？ Well, it’s definitely a pretty powerful datapoint for where we currently sit. But we’reonly 3 years into this whole AI thing, so it’s still very early and there are manyunknowns going forward that might influence how things look like in 3-5 years (stepfunction hw leaps, sw progress, workload drift, power constraints, on device LLMs,etc.) 嗯，这⽆疑是⼀个⾮常有⼒的佐证，说明了我们⽬前的处境。但我们进⼊⼈⼯智能领域才三年，所以⼀切都还处于早期阶段，未来还有许多未知因素可能会影响三到五年后的局⾯（阶跃函数式硬件⻜跃、软件进步、⼯作负载漂移、电⼒限制、设备上的LLMs等）。 The 2nd topic CRWV earnings brought up iswhy the power-shell delay, which manyassume to be attributed toCORZ. We didn’t get much detail around why the delay.CORZsaid last week it was “on track” for 250 MW by year-end, but the “>120 MWenergized” / “90 MW Denton” phrasing read like late-Q3/Oct timing; Denton is ~40MW with the next 90 MW slid to EOY, so CRWV’s expected 50–60% Q4 run nevermaterialized.Was it just execution issue onCORZ’spart or something more broadlyrelated to the industry?If the delay is power related, then that’s a boon for the powerbuild out co’s (solar, storage, BE, etc.) CRWV财报提出的第⼆个话题是为什么电源外壳会延迟，许多⼈认为这归因于CORZ。我们没有得到太多关于延迟原因的细节。CORZ上周表示，到年底将“按计划”达到250兆瓦，但“>120兆瓦已通电”/“90兆瓦丹顿”的措辞听起来像是第三季度末/10⽉的时间；丹顿⼤约40兆瓦，接下来的90兆瓦推迟到年底，因此CRWV预期的第四季度50-60%的运⾏从未实现。这仅仅是CORZ的执⾏问题，还是与整个⾏业更⼴泛相关的问题？如果延迟与电⼒有关，那么这对电⼒建设公司（太阳能、储能、BE等）来说是⼀个福⾳。 Let’s dive more intoCRWV#s first, then hit the usual…. 我们先深⼊了解CRWV的数据，然后再讨论常规内容…… CRWV: Strong Q3 beat on revenue/EBITDA and recordbacklog, but Q4/FY25 were guided down on powered-shelldelays, with most spend and capacity now pushed into early2026 CRWV：第三季度营收/EBITDA强劲，积压订单创历史新⾼，但由于动⼒外壳延迟，第四季度/2025财年指引下调，⼤部分⽀出和产能现已推迟到2026年初 The #s / Key Takeaways 数据/主要观点 Q3:Revenue$1.365B, +134% y/y (last q +207% y/y) vs Street$1.287B; Adj. EBITDA$838M vs$812M; Non-GAAP OM 15.9% vs 13.8%; EPS$(0.08) vs$(0.40). Backlog surged to$55.6B; RPO hit$50B. 第三季度：营收13.65亿美元，同⽐增⻓134%（上季度同⽐增⻓207%），市场预期12.87亿美元；调整后息税折旧摊销前利润8.38亿美元，市场预期8.12亿美元；⾮GAAP营业利润率15.9%，市场预期13.8%；每股收益-0.08美元，市场预期-0.40美元。积压订单激增⾄556亿美元；剩余履约义务（RPO）达到500亿美元。 Q4 guide:Revenue$1.49–1.59B (≈+100–113% y/y) vs Street$1.80B; impliedNon-GAAP OM 7.2–9.1% vs 13.8%. FY25: Revenue$5.05–$5.15B vs$5.28B;Non-GAAP OI$690–$720M vs$769M; Capex$12–14B vs$22.6–$23.4B; YEactive power >850MW 第四季度指引：营收14.9亿-15.9亿美元（同⽐约增⻓100%-113%），市场预期18亿美元；隐含⾮GAAP营业利润率7.2%-9.1%，市场预期13.8%。2025财年：营收50.5亿-51.5亿美元，市场预期52.8亿美元；⾮GAAP营业收⼊6.9亿-7.2亿美元，市场预期7.69亿美元；资本⽀出120亿-140亿美元，市场预期226亿-234亿美元；年末活跃电⼒>850MW Active power ~590MW; contracted power 2.9GW with >1GW uncontracted (12–24 months to come online). YE25 active power now >850MW (from >900MWprior); 2.9GW contracted power with >1GW still to sell; demand remainssupply-constrained. 有功功率约590兆瓦；已签约功率2.9吉瓦，其中超过1吉瓦尚未签约（12-24个⽉内上线）。2025年末有功功率现已超过850兆瓦（此前超过900兆瓦）；已签约功率2.9吉瓦，其中超过1吉瓦仍待出售；需求仍受供应限制。 Customer diversification improving:No single customer >35% of backlog; 60% ofbacklog investment-grade; 9/10 largest customers have signed multipleagreements. 客户多元化程度提⾼：没有单⼀客户的积压订单超过35%；60%的积压订单来⾃投资级客户；前⼗⼤客户中有9家已签署多份协议。 Financing & cost of capital trending better: New DDTL tranches at SOFR +4.25%/4.00%,$14B YTD capital raised; interest expense guide$1.21–$1.25B.Execution continues to lower spreads and extend maturities (no maturities until2028). 融资和资本成本趋势向好：新的DDTL批次利率为SOFR +4.25%/4.00%，年初⾄今已筹集140亿美元资⾦；利息⽀出指导为12.1亿⾄12.5亿美元。持续的执⾏⼒降低了利差并延⻓了到期⽇（2028年之前没有到期债务）。 Mgmt said demand is “insatiable”with a highly supply-constrained market 管理层表示，在供应⾼度受限的市场中，需求“永不满⾜” Most deferred capex shows up in CIP now and installs in Q1. Pricing is stableacross GPU generations (re-contracting near original ASPs), s