TMT早间快报：中美贸易协议乐观情绪推动股市走高

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破OCT 27, 20252025年10⽉27⽇∙PAID∙已付费 Good morning.Futures +1.3%as optimism around US and China closing in on a tradedeal has stocks higher early with AI names outperforming early. We have a busy weekof earnings with close to 50% of TMT market cap reporting, Fed meeting, and Jensenwith a keynote at GTC in DC tomorrow at noon. Going to be a fun one - we’ll be here tocover it all. 早上好。期货上涨1.3%，市场对中美即将达成贸易协议的乐观情绪推动股市早盘⾛⾼，⼈⼯智能概念股表现突出。本周财报季繁忙，近50%的TMT市值公司将发布财报，美联储将召开会议，⻩仁勋将于明天中午在华盛顿特区举⾏的GTC⼤会上发表主题演讲。这将是激动⼈⼼的⼀周⸺我们将全程报道。 Stocksup across the board inAsiaon Monday:TPX+1.7%,NKY+2.46%,HangSeng+1.05%,HSCEI+1.1%,SHCOMP+1.18%,Shenzhen+1.26%,Taiwan TAIEX+1.68%,Korea KOSPI+2.57%. Memory stocks particularly strong with some limit up:Kioxia +11%, Phison +10%, Nanya +9.6%, Hynix +7.5%, Samsung +2.5%. 周⼀亚洲股市全⾯上涨：TPX +1.7%，⽇经指数+2.46%，恒⽣指数+1.05%，恒⽣中国企业指数+1.1%，上证综指+1.18%，深圳成指+1.26%，台湾加权指数+1.68%，韩国综合指数+2.57%。存储芯⽚股表现尤为强劲，部分涨停：铠侠+11%，群联+10%，南亚科+9.6%，海⼒⼠+7.5%，三星+2.5%。 BTC +1.7% Let’s get to it…⾔归正传…… Macro:US, China Tee Up Sweeping Trade Deal for Trump, Xito Finish 宏观：中美为特朗普和习近平敲定全⾯贸易协议做准备 Bloomberg:彭博社： Top trade negotiators for the US and China said they came to terms on a range ofcontentious points, setting the table for leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping tofinalize a deal and ease trade tensions that have rattled global markets. 中美两国最⾼贸易谈判代表表示，双⽅已就⼀系列有争议的问题达成协议，为两国领导⼈唐纳德·特朗普和习近平最终敲定协议并缓解扰乱全球市场的贸易紧张局势奠定了基础。 After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls,fentanyl and shipping levies. 在⻢来⻄亚举⾏的为期两天的会谈于周⽇结束后，⼀位中国官员表示，双⽅已就出⼝管制、芬太尼和航运税等议题达成初步共识。 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking later in an interview with CBSNews, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off thetable” and he expected the Asian nation to make “substantial” soybean purchasesas well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. The US wouldn’t changeits export controls directed at China, he added. 美国财政部⻓斯科特·⻉森特在随后接受哥伦⽐亚⼴播公司新闻采访时表示，特朗普对中国商品征收100%关税的威胁“实际上已经不复存在”，他预计这个亚洲国家将“⼤量”购买⼤⾖，并推迟实施全⾯的稀⼟管制。他补充说，美国不会改变其针对中国的出⼝管制。 China rhetoric largely consistent; Li Chenggang said they reached a “preliminaryconsensus” and will next go through their respective internal approval processes(Reuters) 中国⾔论⼤体⼀致；李成钢表示，双⽅已达成“初步共识”，接下来将各⾃履⾏内部审批程序（路透社） MSFT: Guggenheim Upgrades to Buy, Calls Microsoft the“Obvious and Not-So-Obvious” AI Winner 微软：古根海姆上调评级⾄“买⼊”，称微软是“显⽽易⻅且不那么显⽽易⻅”的AI赢家 Guggenheim upgraded Microsoft toBuywith a$586 price target, about 12% upside,highlighting both its clear and under-appreciated leverage to AI adoption. The firmsays Azure remains the “obvious” AI beneficiary given its recurring cloud model andstrong consumption trends, while M365 represents the “not so obvious” upsidethrough direct AI monetization in Office via Copilot. Guggenheim believes Microsoft’sdual monopolies in Azure and Office create a durable growth runway, and sees thecompany well-positioned to outperform consensus after a very strong FQ4. The firmalso notes that while valuation isn’t cheap, leadership execution and visibility into AI-driven profit expansion justify the premium. Risks include potential Azure deceleration, slower-than-expected Copilot monetization, or margin pressure from infrastructurebuild-out. 古根海姆将微软评级上调⾄“买⼊”，⽬标价为586美元，上涨约12%，强调了其在⼈⼯智能采⽤⽅⾯的明显且被低估的杠杆作⽤。该公司表示，鉴于其经常性云模式和强劲的消费趋势，Azure仍然是“明显”的⼈⼯智能受益者，⽽M365则通过Copilot在Office中直接实现⼈⼯智能货币化，代表了“不那么明显”的上涨空间。古根海姆认为，微软在Azure和Office⽅⾯的双重垄断创造了持久的增⻓跑道，并认为该公司在第四财季表现⾮常强劲后，有望超越市场预期。该公司还指出，虽然估值不便宜，但领导层的执⾏⼒和⼈⼯智能驱动的利润扩张的可⻅性证明了溢价是合理的。⻛险包括Azure潜在的减速、Copilot货币化慢于预期，或基础设施建设带来的利润压⼒。 BKNG: Truist Upgrades to Buy, Sees Multiple Growth DriversAhead BKNG：Truist上调评级⾄“买⼊”，预计未来将有多个增⻓动⼒ Truist raised Booking Holdings to Buy from Hold and lifted its price target to$5,750(from$5,630), pointing to an improved risk/reward setup after the recent pullback.The firm says the long-term travel backdrop in Asia, combined with “steady” globalGDP growth, supports sustained earnings expansion. Truist believes investor worriesabout AI-related disruption are overstated and argues that Booking still has “severalavenues of near- and long-term earnings growth.” The firm adds that the stock’svaluation has become more compelling relative to its growth outlook. Truist将Booking Holdings的评级从“持有”上调⾄“买⼊”，并将其⽬标价从5,630美元上调⾄5,750美元，指出近期回调后⻛险/回报状况有所改善。该公司表示，亚洲⻓期旅游业背景，加上“稳定”的全球GDP增⻓，⽀持了持续的盈利扩张。Truist认为投资者对⼈⼯智能相关颠覆的担忧被夸⼤了，并认为Booking仍有“⼏个近期和⻓期盈利增⻓的途径”。该公司补充说，相对于其增⻓前景，该股票的估值已变得更具吸引⼒。 BKNG: Hearing M-sci says accelerating volume MTD vsSept. BKNG：据摩根⼠丹利称，本⽉迄今交易量加速增⻓，超越9⽉。 MEMORY内存 MU: Citi Lifts PT to$275, Says DRAM Prices Seeing ‘Statueof Liberty’ Surge on AI Demand 美光：花旗将⽬标价上调⾄275美元，称DRAM价格因AI需求出现“⾃由⼥神像”式飙升 Citi reaffirmed its Buy rating on Micron and boosted its price target to$275 (from$240), citing the strongest DRAM pricing spike since the 1990s. The firm projects4Q25 DRAM prices up ~25% QoQ, driven b