太空经济增长发展研究报告

The Growth of the Space Economy The Expanding Space Economy: Foundation for a Multi-Trillion Dollar Frontier Key Trends in Private Equity for Space Economy Government Expenditure on Space Programs (2024) (USD Bn) In 2024, the global space budget rose to $135 billion, a 10% YoY increase from 2023.The United States alone spent $79.7 billion, followed by China ($19.9B), Japan ($6.8B),and other emerging space powers. Cumulative global spending is forecast to surpass$144 billion by 2030, as more countries localize launch and satellite capabilities. Market Outlook: The global space economy is projected to grow from ~$600 billion in2024 to $1.8 trillion by 2035, driven by the demand for space-basedinfrastructure, interconnectivity, sovereign autonomy, and digitaltransformation. This expansion is underpinned by commercialinnovation, declining launch costs, and increased public-privatecollaboration. Applications across telecom, climate monitoring,mobility, and defense are reshaping economic dependencies in bothdeveloped and emerging markets. Launch Activity: In 2023, over 1,500 tons of spacecraft were launched, up from 1,000tons in 2022—representing a 50% YoY increase. Starlink aloneaccounted for 95% of this increase, while emerging constellations fromChina and other regional players expanded their presence. By Q12025, commercial constellations made up over 85% of total launchtonnage, highlighting a shift from government-led launches to scalable,low-orbit commercial networks. Satellite Outlook: Spacecraft Market Concentration: From 2024 through the early 2030s, an average of 3,700 satellites areexpected to be launched annually—equating to~7tons per day. Thisimplies a cumulative deployment of 37,000–40,000 satellites by 2033,driven by broadband access, Earth observation and IoT use cases. Thesatellite market—including hardware, services, and data—is expectedto reach $100–450 billion by 2035, depending on adoption curves andsatellite miniaturization technologies. While mega-constellationsdominate volumes, larger institutional satellites will continue tocommand market value. The spacecraft manufacturing and launch services market is currentlyvalued at $6–7 billion and projected to reach $9–11 billion by 2030.While the U.S. and China still account for ~70% of global governmentspace budgets, commercial activity—particularly in the small-sat andconstellation segment—is gaining traction. The market structureremains bifurcated: low-cost, high-volume commercial playersdominate unit share, while value remains concentrated in large,specialized platforms. Emerging Markets in the Space Economy Satellite Communication Services: The Backbone of Global Connectivity •Satellite communication remains the core infrastructure layer of the spaceeconomy. As of 2024, the SatCom market is valued at $93.7 billion and isprojected to grow to $210.4 billion by 2033, representing a CAGR of over 9%.This rapid growth is being driven by the mass deployment of mega-constellations,including SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon’s Kuiper, China’s G60 and GuoWang, whichtogether are expected to account for 65% of all satellites launched globallythrough 2033. •According to Novaspace, an average of 3,700 satellites will be launched annuallyduring this period. However, while these four mega-constellations dominate unitvolumes, they contribute just 14% of the satellite manufacturing and launchmarket value, due to vertically integrated and highly optimized cost structures. •In contrast,~2,900 large satellites (above 500 kg), operated by 170 institutionaland commercial players, will represent 70% of the market value but account foronly 7% of satellite units. Technology Trends & Strategic Outlook •This fragmentation in volume vs. value is reshaping competitive dynamics. Incumbent satellite manufacturers face margin compression as constellationoperators internalize key functions. •Meanwhile, hybrid LEO–MEO–GEO architectures are gaining ground, driven by the emerging demand for multi-orbit, edge-compute-enabled, and software-defined satellites.•SatCom use cases now extend far beyond fixed broadband. They include global 5G/6G backhaul, mobile connectivity for aviationandmaritime sectors,satellite-to-device links, IoT grid infrastructure, and secure, defense-grade tactical relays.•Government clients, accounting for 75% of market value, are increasingly demanding commercial-grade innovation integrated into secure national frameworks.As we approach 2030, SatCom will be an essential enabler of next-gen connectivity and global digital infrastructure. Emerging Markets in the Space Economy Earth Observation Services: EO’s Role in a Data-Driven World •The Earth Observation (EO) market, valued at $6.8 billion in 2024, is expected togrow to $13.6 billion by 2033. The growth is driven by the expanding relevance ofEO data in ESG disclosure, climate risk mitigation, precision agriculture, defensemonitoring, and disaster response. Over 800 EO satellites were active