美国商业服务行业年中更新及下半年展望

US Business Services: Mid-year update and outlook for H2:26 After a strong first half for Industrials broadly, traditional US Business Servicesstocks have lagged:our Waste coverage underperformed the S&P 500 by -8%, Cintas-13%, and Rollins the worst lagging -37%. Versus the Industrial sector underperformanceis even worse. This is not a story of deteriorating fundamentals: EBITDA revisions are flatyear-to-date for our Waste coverage and Cintas, albeit fundamentals for Rollins have comeunder concern. Rather, the market has rotated into higher-beta, pro-cyclical names—datacenter beneficiaries, PMI-sensitive industrials, etc.—leaving Waste and uniforms as relativelaggards. There is some justification to this—for businesses with stable revisions they oughtto underperform those with more positive ones. Connor Cerniglia, CFA+1 917 344 8472connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com Bridget Alkin+1 917 344 8359bridget.alkin@bernsteinsg.com We believe the Waste industry outlook has improved modestly since January.Fed2026 CPI expectations have risen to 3.5% from 2.6%, and given that many contracts priceon a 12-month average CPI with a 6-month lag,FY2027 pricing estimates likely needto move higher. Recycled commodity prices are up year-to-date across OCC andplastics, D3 RIN prices are up 23% YoY, and with PMI above 50 for five consecutivemonths, industrial volumes offer near-term upsidecompared to when PMI was 47.9 atthe start of the year. The clearest risk is Residential, where volumes have stayed negativelonger than management teams anticipated—Republic Services’s CEO described industrycompetition as, “people willing to work for very, very low returns” on the last earnings call—though our base case is gradual improvement through H2:26.It is probable the Wasteindustry increases FY2026 guidance during Q2 results.Within Waste RSG and WMhave performed the same year-to-date, with WCN lagging them by 7%, relating to concernsabout the Chiquita Canyon landfill. Industrial distributors have broadly outperformed the S&P 500, though dispersionis wide:Grainger is up +33%, Fastenal up +21%, and Ferguson up +3%. Grainger'soutperformance reflects a catch-up from 2025 underperformance and stronger execution—and a beat and raised last quarter—while Fastenal was caught flat-footed on brandedproduct pricing. Incoming CEO Jeff Watts begins in July, and execution risk related tohis transition is an area of focus. Ferguson's lag is a residential construction story: Mayhousing starts fell -15% MoM to the lowest level since May 2020, offsetting what we viewas underappreciated data center exposure in the non-residential book. For Pest Control and Uniforms, two near-term events define each company’s setup.Rollins enters Q2:26 with its first clean organic growth read since Q3:25;intra-quarter commentary at a conference cited “choppy” trendslinked to lower endconsumer pressure in some areas of the business. Its competitor Rentokil (covered byWill Kirkness) was asked about this, and opted not to comment. There is one thing we cansay for certain—weather was warmer YoY, a tailwind for pest control players entering thequarter.Cintas remains in deal purgatory: the FTC's June 11th Second Request likelypushesany deal approval to H1:27, most likely approved or not in its current form sincedivestitures would be an insufficient remedy to FTC concerns.Near-term, investors arefocused on whether incremental margins step up to 35-38% next quarter (FYQ4:26),after several quarters near ~27%, providing clarity on whether lackluster margins weretemporary or structural. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Within Waste, we rate Waste Management Outperform with a PT of $260, Waste Connections Outperform with a PT of$205, and Republic Services Market-Perform with a PT of $220. With our Industrial Distributor coverage we rate FergusonOutperform with a PT of $310, WW Grainger Market-Perform with a PT of $1,250, and Fastenal Underperform with a PT of $42.We rate Cintas Market-Perform with a PT of $200 and Rollins Market-Perform with a PT of $52. DETAILS 2026 BUSINESS SERVICES YTD PERFORMANCE After a strong first half for Industrials broadly, traditional US Business Services stocks have lagged: our Waste coverageunderperformed the S&P 500 by -8%, Cintas by -13%, and Rollins the worst lagging by -37% (Exhibit 1). Versus the Industrialsector underperformance is even worse. This is a not a story of deteriorating fundamentals: EBITDA revisions are flat year-to-date for our Waste coverage and Cintas, albeit fundamentals for Rollins have come under concern. Rather, the market hasrotated into higher-beta, pro-cyclical names—data center beneficiaries, PMI-sensitive industrials, etc.—leaving Waste anduniforms as relative laggards. There is some justification to this—for businesses with stable outlooks, relative outperformance inrevisions elsewhere, should drive share outpeformance as well. EXHIBIT 1:Industrial distributors performed the best in our US Business Serv