准备下半年工作

Preparing for the second half After an eventful first half, the drop in oil eases inflationpressures and helps sentiment. This should make centralbanks' jobs easier in principle. But Warsh's agenda for the Fedcould introduce fresh volatility, amid above-target Usinflation and ongoing swings in Us labour market data. +44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKSilvia Ardagna + 44 (0) 20 7773 1715silvia.ardagna@barclays.comBarclays, UKNaohiko Baba +81 3 4530 1378naohiko.baba@barclays.comBSJL,Japan Preparing for the second half. After an eventful first half, the drop in oil eases inflation pressures and helps sentiment. Thisshould make central banks'jobs easier in principle. But Warsh's agenda forthe Fed couldintroducefreshvolatility,amid above-target Us inflation and ongoing swings in Us labourmarket data. +1212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Global Forecasts.10Global Data and Events. Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong USOutlook +44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UK Awaiting direction.13Warsh's remarks at Sintra provided no clues about howpolicymight respond to data just as theeconomy approaches a critical juncture. June's jobs data hinted at moderation,but did notsettle the debate.For now, this has both the economy and markets awaiting direction. Marc Giannoni+1212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US EuroAreaOutlook Trying to read thetea leaves.23EAinflation eased in June, while ECBspeakers at Sintrakeptall policy options open.We stillexpecta second25bphike in September,thoughlower oil prices couldarguefora less proactiveECB reaction function. In France, Marine Le Pen's court verdict is due on 7 July. Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore UnitedKingdomOutlook Stillagapinthedefence...35Andy Burnham outlined his policy visionforthe Uk this week, although increased defencespending will need to be accounted for.Final Q1 GDP confirmed growth of 0.6% q/q, althoughwe expect itto slow in the nearterm. Governor Bailey stated that rate cuts were currently off thetable. Basiceconomic/fiscalpolicyanddifficultiesreducingtheconsumption proposal to cut consumption taxes onfood has met strong opposition,with no further clarity onfunding.Meanwhile,an upbeat Tankan with stronger inflation indicators backed our rate hikeoutlook. June PMI and high frequency data continued to paint a picture of export-led growth recovery,while domestic demand and labour market remained subdued, with the property marketweakening further and 618 shopping festival growth slowing sharply. Next week, credit andinflation data are in focus. The unstoppable semiconductor story............................Korea's June exportdata suggest the seemingly unstoppable semiconductor storyhasyet tocome to an end.We now see the upcoming July monetary policy review in Singapore as anincreasinglycloser call-with the SGD NEER band's slope possibly being raised earlierthan ourOctoberbasecase. EEMEAOutlook DataReview&Preview.....64A review of key data points in the past week and a preview of data releases and market-movingevents in the week ahead, including ourforecasts. Latin America Outlook Post-electionpolitics.67With recent elections over, Latin America now faces a hardertest: governability,policyexecution and credibility.Mexico's USMCA review bears watching,while Brazil's fiscal issues andOctober election, Colombia's transition,and growth tests in Argentina and Chileshould drivedifferentiation GlobalEconomicsWeekly KeyGlobalData......76 A summary of forthcoming data releases and market-moving events, including Barclaysforecasts. Preparing for the second half pressures and helps sentiment. This should make centralbanks' jobs easier in principle. But Warsh's agenda for the Fedcould introduce fresh volatility, amid above-target Usinflation and ongoing swings in Us labour market data. +44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKAkashUtsav +91 (0) 22 6175 1543akash.utsav@barclays.comBarclays, UK Monetary policy at halftimeSintra and the central bank family "All happyfamilies are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way"is the famous opening line in Leo Tolstoy's 1877 masterpiece Anna Karenina.When the extendedfamily ofcentral bankersfrom around the world came togetherfortheir annual reunion at the ECB'sForum in Sintra (Portugal) this week, some observers may have thought of Tolstoy. In principle,the global central bank family had reasons tofeel happy. Oil prices had just receded back totheir pre-lran warlevels,thus ending the adverse supply shock that had caused central bankersthedilemma ofsimultaneouslyfacing rising inflation andprospects ofweakerdemand. With this out of the way,the ECB seemed like a happyfamily overall.President Lagarderepeated muchofthe common languagetheyhadfound (eg,from'forward guidance'to"frameworkguidance')and emphasised their'no regret'attitude overthe Ju