锡-周报：宏观情绪缓和，周内锡价触底回升

锡：宏观情绪缓和，周内锡价触底回升 作者 宏观情绪缓和，周内锡价触底回升 本周非农下修，宏观情绪缓和。根据CME，7月29日美联储会议预期维持不变概率78%，加息概率22%，加息概率较上周下滑。本周（截至2026/07/03），SMM:1#锡价收于39.9万元/吨，环比+4.9%，SHFE锡价收于40.2万元/吨，环比+3.9%，LME锡收于53395美元/吨，环比+4.7%。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 供给端：延续偏紧格局 矿端延续偏紧格局，冶炼厂开工率受限，叠加加工费持续处于低位，炼厂提产意愿不足，精锡实际增量有限。本周国内锡锭总产量3605吨，环比-2.3%，同比+6.3%。云南和江西锡锭冶炼厂开工率本周分别达到84.7%、32.79%，环比-0.33pct、-0pct。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 需求端：消费正值淡季，40万元/吨下游补库意愿强 虽正值消费淡季，但锡价回落至40万元/吨以下后，下游补库意愿明显增强，厂家现货偏紧，社会库存加速去化，进口货源补充不足，场内流通货源减少，现货市场整体呈现偏紧态势。 本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为7299吨，环比-1374吨，库存分位处于2020年来的39%分位水平。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存14677吨，环比-1481吨，其中SHFE-1336吨，LME-145吨。 展望 短期：宏观情绪缓和，虽处于需求淡季，供给端扰动持续存在，预计7月锡价震荡偏强。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：宏观情绪缓和，周内锡价触底回升...................................................................................................32.库存：周内大幅去库................................................................................................................................43.供给：精炼锡开工率下滑..........................................................................................................................54.矿端紧平衡，5月表需下滑.......................................................................................................................7附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美联储降息点阵图........................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................4图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................4图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................5图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................5图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................6图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价..............................................................................................................