全球经济学周报：为下半年做准备

Preparing for the second half Afteran eventful first half, the drop in oil eases inflationpressures and helps sentiment. This should make centralbanks' jobs easier in principle. But Warsh's agenda for the Fedcould introduce fresh volatility, amid above-target USinflation and ongoing swings in US labour market data. Christian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UK Silvia Ardagna+ 44 (0) 20 7773 1715silvia.ardagna@barclays.comBarclays, UK Naohiko Baba+ 81 3 4530 1378naohiko.baba@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Global Synthesis Afteran eventful first half, the drop in oil eases inflation pressures and helps sentiment. Thisshould make central banks' jobs easier in principle. But Warsh's agenda for the Fed couldintroduce fresh volatility, amid above-target US inflation and ongoing swings in US labourmarket data. Gabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Global Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Global Data and Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong US Outlook Ercan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UK Awaiting direction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Warsh’s remarks at Sintra provided no clues about how policy might respond to data just as theeconomy approaches a critical juncture. June's jobs data hinted at moderation, but did notsettle the debate. For now, this has both the economy and markets awaiting direction. Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US Euro Area Outlook Trying to read the tea leaves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23EA inflation eased in June, while ECB speakers at Sintra kept all policy options open. We stillexpect a second 25bp hike in September, though lower oil prices could argue for a less proactiveECB reaction function. In France, Marine Le Pen's court verdict is due on 7 July. Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore United Kingdom Outlook Still a gap in the defence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Andy Burnham outlined his policy vision for the UK this week, although increased defencespending will need to be accounted for. Final Q1 GDP confirmed growth of 0.6% q/q, althoughwe expect it to slow in the near term. Governor Bailey stated that rate cuts were currentlyoffthetable. Japan Outlook Basic economic/fiscal policy anddifficultiesreducing the consumptiontax. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Draftpolicy plans call for real growth above 1% via “responsible proactive fiscal policy,” but aproposal to cut consumption taxes on food has met strong opposition, with no further clarity onfunding. Meanwhile, an upbeat Tankan with stronger inflation indicators backed our rate hikeoutlook. China Outlook Uneven recovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49June PMI and high frequency data continued to paint a picture of export-led growth recovery,while domestic demand and labour market remained subdued, with the property marketweakening further and 618 shopping festival growth slowing sharply. Next week, credit andinflation data are in focus. Emerging Asia Outlook The unstoppable semiconductor story. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55Korea's June export data suggest the seemingly unstoppable semiconductor story has yet tocome to an end. We now see the upcoming July monetary policy review in Singapore as anincreasingly closer call – with the SGD NEER band's slope possibly being raised earlier than ourOctober base case. EEMEA Outlook Data Review & Preview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 A review of key data points in the past week and a preview of data releases and market-movingevents in the week ahead, including our forecasts. Latin America Outlook Post-election politics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 With recent elections over, Latin America now faces a harder test: governability, policyexecution and credibility. Mexico’s USMCA review bears watching, while Brazil’s fiscal issues andOctober election, Colombia’s transition, and growth tests in Argentina and Chile should drivedifferentiation Global Economics Weekly Key Global Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 A summary of forthcoming data releases and market-moving events, including Barclaysforecasts. Global Synthesis Pre