数据中心与Neocloud对比：利润率与单位经济效益分析

Data Centers & Neoclouds: Comparing margins and uniteconomics Today,we'rebuildingonourcollaborative"HowmuchisaMegawattWorth"notetounpackmargins anduniteconomics.ThetraditionaldatacenterREITs (EQIX,DLR,CoreSite),neoclouds(CRWV,NBS,REN),andEmergingA/nfraproviders(CiFR,WULFCORZ,RIOT)aresituatedatdifferentlocationsintheecosystem,buttryingtosolveasimilarproblem:enablingcomputeforAl(andnon-Al)workloads.Inthisnote,wewalkthroughfivemajorandriskprofiles.WithinemergingAIinfra,CIFRandWULFstandoutwithstrongleasingmargins,decliningcostoffundsandhyperscalercounterparties.WithinCloudnames,IRENdemonstratesstrongmarginsduetoverbicallyintegratedlandlordeconomics,butisbehindonscaleandbuildinganenterprisebusiness (relativetoCRWVandotherclouds).WearealsoconstructiveonthecolocationREiTs,whichofferacompellingcombinationofstrongcredit- GautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com MadisonRezaei+19173448622madson.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Mahika Sapra+912268421408mahika.sapraqbernsteinsg.com Sanskar Chindalia+912268421445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com Operatingmargin:CRWVproject-leveladj.EBITDAmargin is70-80%whileIREN'sMSFTcontractadj EBITDA margin is at 85%(steady state), the gapdue tovertical integration.However,higherdepreciationwrite-offsonbothdata centerandGPUcapextranslatesintolowerproject-leveloperating(EBIT)marginsforIRENat26%vsCRWVat25-30%.Colocation(DLR,EQIX)EBITmarginsare50-65%duetohighermixofretail/highmarginincreasingto~100%withtriplenetdeals. HarshMisra+912268421457harsh.misra@bemsteinsg.com NancyWu+19173448545nancy.wu@gbernsteinsg.com Revenueyield:As wementioned inourpriornote,theneocloudshavemuchhigherrevenue/Mwthananycolocationprovidersastheysellmoreofthefullsolution,inclusiveofbothrealestateandhardware.Severalthingsinfluences/Mw:locationoffacilities,timetoavailability,volume/customermix,and,forcloudproviders,hardwaresophisticationandsoftware.EQixisconsistentlythehighest-pricedcoloMw(locations+retailmix)Unlikefixedcolocationrents,cloudpricing isdynamic andbenefitsfrom tightsupply-demandconditions,higher-valueenterprise/on-demandworkloads,andmigrationtonext-generationchips.Additionalupsidecomesfromsoftware (orchestration,managedservices)layeredontopofinfrastructure,expandingrevenuesourcesovertime. Financing:ForNeoclouds,infraisfinancedbyconvertible/equity (IREN),whileGPUfinancingtendstobeasset-backedDDTLsatSOFR+spread(IRENislowerat2.25%,whileCRWV'sis~4%+).EQIXreliesoncashflowand asimplercapitalstructurewhileDLRuses JVcapitalandinstitutionalpartnerstofundhyperscaledevelopmentwhileretainingoperatingcontrol.EmergingAl infraco's(CIFR,WULF)haveutilizedproject-levelfinancing(~70-85%LTC)at improvingrates:CIFR'scouponhasimprovedfrom7.125%in itsfirstcontract(Fluidstack-Googleat BarberLake)to6.0% in its latestdeal with AwS atStingray. Risk profile: Alcloudis ahigh-risk,high-rewardbusiness as hyperscalers are not justanchortenantsbutcompetitorsbuildingtheirown cloud.Al labs andenterprisecan helpdiversifywithpotentialpriceupside,varyingcontractduration,creditquality,andutilization.EmergingAlplayersdealwithstrongbutdemandinghyperscalerclientsandsolidon-timeexecutioncouldleadtorepeatcontracts(e.gCiFRsecuredarepeatcontractfromAWS) BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS U.S.CommunicationsInfrastructure:WevalueDLRona PricetoAdjustedFundsFromOperations(AFFO)persharemultiple.Our$232pricetarget isbasedon27xour2027EAFFOpershareof$8.52. WevalueEQiXonaPricetoAdjustedFundsFromOperations(AFFO)persharemultiple.Our$1,222pricetargetisbasedon25xour2027EAFFOpershareof$48.63. WevalueAMTonaPricetoNTMAdjustedFundsFromOperations (AFFO)per sharemultiple.Our$207pricetargetisbasedon18xour2027EAFFOpershareof$11.49. WevalueCRWVonanEV/AdjustedEBITmultiple.Our$67pricetargetisbasedonanEnterpriseValuecalculatedas28.4xour2027EAdj.EBITpershareof$5.81. Bitcoin Miners/EmergingAl Infra:Cryptominersremain well-positionedto solve“time-to-compute'given their planned3oGwpowerportfolioandoperatingabilitytodeliverwarmpoweredshells'intime.Overthepasttwoyears,minershavecontracted6 Gw of power capacitytohyperscalers, neoclouds and Al-chipmanufacturers across 17deals worth over $110Bn.rateWULFOutperform(PT$36),CIFROutperform(PT$32),IRENOutperform(PT$10O),CORZOutperform(PT32),RIOTOutperform(PT$30),CLSKOutperform(PT$24),andMARAMarket-Perform(PT$17) and creditconsistencythan cloud withoutfull dependenceonhyperscalers. orientedmodelversuscloud'shigh-risk,high-reward profile.Colocationproviders areperhapsthelowest-risk,benefitingfromhyperscalerandneocloudtenantssigninglargelong-termcontractsprovidingstrongcreditqualityvisibilityandfinancingdemandusers,providingrevenuediversificationbutintroducingvariabilityincontractduration,pricing,andcreditquality.On-Counterpartyrisk:cloud offers diversification with variability,emerging Alis anchoredby hyperscaler credit. andmorepredictablecapitalstructures. and emerging Al infra, in contrast, benefitsfrom more traditional project financing with~75-85% debt funding,supported byprepayments,canmaterially