星座品牌Q1F27业绩超预期及新CEO战略展望

Americas Alcoholic BeveragesConstellation Brands Inc Trevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperformPrice TargetSTZ Matthew Cheung+44 20 7676 6809matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com 197.00 USD Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)+44 20 7676 7291asavari.paluskar@bernsteinsg.com Constellation Brands Q1 F27: Beats to start the year & hints ofnew CEO's strategy Beats to start the year. For beer, both Q1 depletions (-0.3%) and shipments (+1.8%)exceeded our and consensus’ expectations. Price-mix was weaker-than-anticipated, butnet sales still beat us by 2.7% and consensus by 1.8% with the beats continuing throughthe P&L (partially helped by marketing phasing). This was compounded by a strong beat inWine & Spirits, driving group EPS of $3.43, beating us by 8.5% and consensus by 7.9%. F27 Close Date30 Jun 2026STZ Close Price (USD)139.09Price Target (USD)197.00Upside/(Downside)42%52-Week Range178.14/126.45SPX7,440.43FYEFebDiv Yield3.0%Market Cap (USD) (M)23,951EV (USD) (M)35,356 What caught our attention were the hints of the (new) CEO Nick Fink’s strategic visionfor the business and it sounds promising (so far).(1)More room to grow volumes.Aclear belief in the “significant runway to continue growing our leading brands”, and in particular“Modelo Especial continues to have significant opportunity ahead of it, supported by bothdistribution expansion and relatively low unaided awareness for a brand of its scale”. However(2) a slightly different lens is now required. “We will look to deploy a different playbookto sustain growth at scale than we do to scale emerging brands” and “to better understandoccasions and segment opportunities based on consumer needs, and are refreshing that workas we speak”.(3)White space opportunity needs to be explored. “We must deliberately, Our questions ahead of tomorrow’s call at 8am ET.(1)What will this different playbook tosustain growth at scale look like? And when will we get an in-depth strategic vision?(2)Whatare the white space opportunities management finds attractive, and what transaction sizewould it consider?(3)Why maintain the W&S net sales guidance despite the strong beat? Q1 F27 Results Summary Beer topline beats expectations.Constellation reported Q1 F27 beer depletion decline of -0.3%, 130bps ahead of us and30bps ahead of consensus, with management commenting that the strong start to the year in March was followed by softervolumes in April and May. According to management, persistent inflation and broader economic uncertainty continuing to shapeconsumer spending patterns. Beer shipment growth was +1.8%, 310bps ahead of us and 380bps ahead of consensus. Bybrand, Modelo Especial depletions declined -2%, Corona Extra declined over -5% although Pacifico grew depletions of 21%.By channel, depletions in the off-premise declined -0.5% (88% of total depletions), whilst the on-premise grew +1.3% (12% of Beat flows through the P&L, driven by beer.Q1 F27 beer net sales of $2,284m were +2.7% ahead of us and +1.8% aheadof consensus estimates. Similarly, beer operating margins of 39.0% were 50bps ahead of us and 90bps ahead of consensusas growth in shipments and favorable pricing was offset by unfavorable mix and higher marketing SG&A spend. Q1 F27W&S net sales of $149m was far above our estimates (+10%) and consensus (+8%). W&S operating income of -$1.1m wasslightly worse than we expected but in-line with consensus. For the quarter, US depletions for the remaining portfolio (i.e. post- F27 guidance unchanged.Management continues to expect group organic net sales growth of between -1% to +1%, withboth Beer and W&S organic net sales growth to be between this -1% to +1% range. The company also continues to expectgroup operating margin (reported and comparable) to be between 32% to 33%. By segment, Beer operating margins areexpected to be between 37% to 38%, whilst W&S operating margins are expected to be between 5% to 6%. Net, the company INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Constellation Outperform, TP $197. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates