全球通胀监测：油价下跌将缓解整体通胀压力

Global Inflation Monitor: Lower Oil Prices to Ease Headline Pressures CITI'S TAKE Nathan SheetsAC+1-212-816-2991nathan.sheets@citi.com Global headline inflation had risen sharply to a notch above 3% throughMay—up roughly 1 ppt since the onset of the conflict—reflecting theelevated oil prices that prevailed through that period. However, this rise inheadline inflation should begin to reverse as the sharp retreat in oil pricesallows energy inflation to unwind. Global core inflation meanwhile hasremained unchanged in recent months at slightly below 2½%, suggestingthat broader price pressures from the oil price shock remain limited. Even so,some lingering second-round effects, including supply chain disruptions inpetrochemicals, fertilizers, and aluminum remain in play. Accordingly, wehave revised up our core inflation projections by½ppt on average. Also ofnote, burgeoning AI demand is creating upward price pressures for AI-related goods, with US tech capital goods import prices surging almost 15%since the end of last year. Cole Langlois+1-212-816-7649cole.langlois@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Global Inflation (May) © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, National Statistical Sources, Haver Analytics © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, National Statistical Sources, Haver Analytics © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.*Brazil and South Africa PPI data through April 2026.Source: Citi Research, National Statistical Sources, Haver Analytics © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Enter FootnoteSource: Citi Research Notes: 1.Regional Aggregates:DM aggregate includes the US, Euro Area, Japan, UK,and Canada. EM aggregate includes Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico,Hungary, South Africa, South Korea, Poland, and Chile. Global aggregatecombines DM and EM. Data are weighted by nominal USD GDP. Unlessotherwise noted, all charts use this aggregation structure.2.Core Inflation:Core inflation for Japan excludes only fresh food, consistentwith the national definition.3.PPI Inflation:Unavailable observations are filled in with a 3-month movingaverage to calculate aggregates.4.Services Inflation:EM aggregate does not include Indonesia, India, and SouthAfrica due to data availability.5.Core Goods Inflation:EM aggregate does not include Indonesia, India, andSouth Africa; goods inflation rather than core goods is used for China, Poland,and Chile due to data availability.6.US Import Prices:The prices for items used to calculate import price indexesexclude duties.7.Forecasts for Core Inflation:Forecasts are not available for Canada, China,India, and South Africa. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based uponactivities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations