市场版：老鹰Vs公牛：进入淘汰阶段？

Published: June 30, 2026 Host: Alex Saunders, Head of Global Quant Macro Strategy, Citi Guest: Alice Zheng, Global Macro Strategy Team, Citi Transcript: Opening Teaser: (00:00) Research @ Citi Markets Edition. Alex Saunders (00:03) Welcome to Research @Citi Markets Edition, where we break down global macro in10 minutes or less. I am your host today, Alex Saunders, Head of Quant Macro Research, and I'm joined byAlice Zheng of our Global Macro Strategy Team. Welcome to the show, Alice. Alice Zheng (00:18) Thanks, Alex. Happy to be here. Alex Saunders (00:21) We're recording this podcast at 10 a.m. on Monday, June 29, 2026. First, let's talk about Kevin. We saw a hawkish debut from the new FOMC chair,which fit with the historical pattern of rates markets selling off on the first meeting of anew chair. Why was that? Firstly, we got a hawkish dot plot from the other FOMC members, but wegot very little in terms of forward guidance beyond an emphasis on price stability fromthe chair himself. We did get a plethora of task forces, one of which will covercommunications — which we expect, like the statement, to be more terse than underprevious chairs. This probably means more volatility around data releases. The other large change in markets has been oil prices, which have fallen inanticipation of de-escalation and the memorandum of understanding between the U.S.and Iran. We have made the point before and elsewhere, that rate hikes tend to be oily Now, however, oil prices are back to pre-war levels, which means that central banksthat reacted to higher oil prices and whose front ends are more sensitive to oil pricemoves, namely UK, EU and Sweden, stand to benefit more. The potential hawkish turn on the FOMC committee, plus the fact the U.S., as well assome other countries in EM Asia, are the primary beneficiaries of the AI capex booms, That covers the rates section, but what do these themes mean for the dollar and FXmarkets, Alice? Alice Zheng (02:07) Thanks Alex. We have moved more bullishly on the dollar. As you mentioned, oilprices have dropped with the de-escalation and G10 rates have generally followed thepath of oil, both higher and lower. But the U.S. front end stands out here because rateshave stayed elevated even with lower oil. Other than Chair Warsh being more hawkish than expected, domestic factors, withinflation from AI and improvements in the labor market, have kept front-end rateselevated. The sustained divergence in central-bank policy, where front-end policy in theU.S. is decoupled from Brent oil prices, unlike other G10 central banks, has solidified From the more quantitative side, our Fed policy-stance proxy, which is basedon forward rates, break-evens, and S&P performance, indicates that current Fed pricingis tight relative to economic conditions. We find that periods with tight Fed policystances are typically correlated with stronger dollar returns. From the flows perspective, we've definitely seen this play out. Citi flows data showsthat net inflows into dollar from both leveraged and real-money accounts haveincreased. And CFTC data also shows the largest net bullish USD positioning in over ayear. In our asset allocator blocks, we also saw large asset managers reduce their dollarshort significantly over the past month. The AI trade and U.S. exceptionalism will alsobe key to the dollar trade. Alex, what are we thinking on that? Alex Saunders (03:29) Thanks Alice. I mean, the final point to make there is that we're calling for extra time onthe AI trade, or at least on the equity trade. The first point to make is earnings revisionshave been very strong, which is typically a good backdrop for equities. We have anotherearning season starting in just a couple of weeks, and we'll get a lot of new information,but earnings revisions don't tend to act as a contra indicator, so it seems too early to That same too-early-to-fade point can be made on the Fed. The bear markets in 2007-2008, and post the dot-com bust, came against the backdrop of the Fed actuallydelivering interest-rate hikes. Central-bank liquidity also remains accommodative. Now, this may change — there's atask force for that. But at present, there's no reason for concern. several of the leaders or the so-called generals breaking down, that would be cause forreassessment. Finally, we think having credit underweights is a good hedge for equityrisk, as we think a scenario of an equity sell-off without financial-condition tightening is So overall, a potentially hawkish Fed coupled with declining oil prices gives rise torelative value opportunities in rate space and in trading the dollar, while not yet giving usconcern on equity risk. Thank you for joining us today. This episode was recorded on June 29, 2026. I am yourhost, Alex Saunders, standing in for Dirk Willer. For more details, Citi clients can checkout our report on the Citi Velocity portal. Head of U.S. Equity Strategy. Be sure to watch for our Research @ C