全球金属与矿业：回归 master 模式下的增长潜力解析

Global Metals & Mining: Our reversion master implies things areas good as they get thepastfourmonths, expectations have shifted sharply-fromthreeratecutstopricing inone hike in 2026.Againstthis backdrop, itfeels timely to revisit our proprietary 40-year"reversionmaster model"to assessmargin of safetyand identify more attractive entrypoints +19173448422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 76766825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com commodities-particularlygold andcopper.Aluminium has alsocorrected (~15% inJune),partly driven by the Iran-US peace deal. In nickel, Indonesia's increase in miningquotas (from 260Mt to 360Mt) has added worries about supply. Meanwhile, iron ore hasslipped below $100/t as earlier cost support from elevated freight rates has eased. The floor of commodity prices are set by the cost curves (Exhibit 4). If price falls intothe cost curve the marginal mines (or smelters) lose moneyfor every tonne of metal theyproduce, so they send their workers home and call it a day (supporting price).Some metalsof metal prices is the 9Oth percentile cash cost (Exhibit 5). We exclude gold (therefore ABX& NEM), in this analysis as we don't believe the cost curve determines the price of gold(Exhibit 17).Wehighlight the sell-off in NEMhas been broadly in-line withthe decline innegative timeline revisions and higher capex on the Reko Diq project. Using the 9oth percentile cash cost as the "floor", thermal coal and copper havethe greatest downside (>50% downside), while other commodities (aluminium,zinc,met coal) are about 40% awayfrom their 9Oth percentile costs. However, we think theprobability of copper getting to the 9Oth percentile cost is very slim, outside of the mostsevere recessions.Hence, we also lay outabalanced risk/reward scenario.This scenarioaround $10,000/t as:(1)the capex intensityof brownfield projects arenowmostly above$4/lb)and (2)the 9oth percentile of copper C1 cash cost + sustaining capex is c.$6,700/t. Exhibit 1 summarises the scenarios-all miners in our coverage are above thebalanced risk/rewardprice,We complementour scenario analysis with a list ofmetal-by-metal historical price vs. cost curve and long-term EBITDA margin. Three key charts tosummarise the story: 1. Exhibit 11-the sector is now significantly above the LT average EBITDA margin,suggesting the sectoris expensive.Further weakness will provide an excellent entry pointto the sector. 2.Exhibit3-gold,zinc and copperare outperforming other metals &coal. 3. Exhibit 18 - nickel is the only metal below the price suggested by the long runEBITDA margin (due to supply pressure from Indonesia). INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Wemaintain our Outperform ratings on ABX, NEM and RIO. Wemaintain our Market-Perform ratings on AAL,ANTO,BHP, BOL,FCX, GLEN,and VALE StockPricesScenarioRecessionScenario.BalancedRisk/RewardScenario..9Reversion Master is ournorth starMethodology...14Sector vs Historic Performanc..18Metals EBITDAvs Historic Performance...22Metals EBIT vs Historic Performance..26MetalsROCEvsHistoricPerformance..28Appendix....30Copper..30Nickel....34Zinc...38Aluminium.42Iron Ore...46Met Coal....50Thermal Coal..54Gold.....58Relationship between EBITDA and Multiple.61 EXHIBIT1: In the balanced risk/reward scenario, lowerprices assumptions vs.2027 consensus drivepricetargets below current spot levels.In a recession scenario, high operating leverage implies 50-75% downside for mostnames. EXHIBIT 2: In a recession scenario,we estimateprices could fall to 10%below the 90thpercentile of C1cash costs,except for nickel and thermal coal, which could reach even lower levels. Balanced risk/reward scenario gives usattractive entrypoints. Onlyatruerecessionwoulddrivespotpricestothe"recessionscenario"levels above.Andwesuspectbasedonpastexperiences that investors won't waitto thelastday ofa recession to buy.Therefore,we assignmore arbitrary levels where our Most commodities, except preciousmetals, have performed well sincelast year.Based on spot EBITDAmargins (Exhibit 3) relativeto long-term averages,it's clear that most commodities-especially base metals-are currently trading above mid-cyclelevels. marketisnowpricingina25bpsratehikebyDecember2026,coectations of 75bps of rate cuts as recentlyasFebruary. 2027-it is prudentto consideralternative scenarios and draw on our proprietary 40-year"reversionmaster model"to assessmargin ofsafety andpotential entrypoints.In particular,wefocus on a balanced risk/reward and a recession scenariotoframedownside risks and identify more attractive points to re-enter through the cycle percentilecashcost)scenarioand (3)balancedrisk/reward scenario.Stockprices ineachscenarioaredrivenbydifferentsetofcommoditypriceassumptions,whichweexplainbelow. (Global Metals &Mining:2Q26Commodity &Equity Update-The set up as the war ends (?) but reverberations persist). Recession scenario assumes commodities prices will fall to the 9oth percentile cash cost (or slightly below) in theeventof recession. It has a lower probabi