全球金属与矿业：霍尔木兹冲突下铝市场虽受冲击但未崩溃

Global Metals & Mining: Aluminium markets have been bent butnot broken by the Hormuz Conflict Global demand for aluminum is ~100 mln tonnes (or equivalently MT or Mmt). Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com 7% of demand is sourced from the Middle Eastand (a) is strongly export-oriented and(b) relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz to reach markets. Those tons cannot currentlyreach market amidst two nation’s blockades. Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com 3% of global demand has been damaged by military strikes. Restart and rebuildtimes for smelters are measured in months, quarters and years. We provide full details ondamages below. As a result,aluminum prices have moved to the second highest levels ever witnessed(closing in on all-time highs experienced during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict). In this note we update our aluminum outlook both near-term and long-term. Weraise our2026 price deck and see significantly elevated pricesfor the year. We doexpectreversion to more typical mid-cycle pricesin the coming years. Deeper in the note weupdate our long-term supply/demand modelon interestingstructural trends (e.g., property, grid, EVs) In our coverage,RIO (outperform) is the only significant beneficiary of higher prices.With a production of ~3 MT (3% of global demand), simplistically, RIO and its ~$28 blnEBITDA benefits from ~$300 mln for every $100/t move in price and aluminum is up$700/t year to date. Two risks might cause aluminum to rise higher.First is a lack of resolution to theHormuz Conflict. Second is the knock-on impact of higher energy prices. Aluminum is extremely energy-intensive.We note that Al (with an “L”) consumes ~4%of global electricity while AI (with an “I”) data centers consume 0.5% of global electricity.Power prices are extremely sensitive to natural gas and coal prices which have risen onthe Hormuz Conflict. Aluminum prices rise with input costs (passing those costs throughto the purchaser on the margin) and thus there is upside risk for a positive price impactto aluminum not only from its disrupted supply chain, but the disruption of its sources ofpower. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Outperform rating on Rio Tinto and update Rio Tinto model with Q1 production results and revised aluminiumprice estimates. We raise our price target from GBP 61.00 to GBP 62.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x against our forward 2027EBITDA estimate. Table Of Contents Bent not Broken........................................................................................................................................................................................................................4Evidence of dislocations........................................................................................................................................................................................................9Other Supply Disruptions............................................................................................................................................................................................13The Longer Term “Un-bending”....................................................................................................................................................................................... 14Future Projects............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14Demand..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17Building & Construction...............................................................................................................................................................................................20Electrical Cable...............................................................................................................................................................................................................24Auto & Light Truck......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24Cost Pressure to Smelters..........................................................................................................................................................................................26Understanding Price........................................................................................................................