2026年东南亚能源展望

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Slovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States The IEA examines the full spectrum ofenergy issues including oil, gas andcoal supply and demand, renewableenergy technologies, electricity markets,energy efficiency, access to energy,demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEAadvocates policies that will enhance thereliability, affordability and sustainabilityof energy in its 32Member countries,13Association countries and beyond. IndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineViet Nam IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugal The European Commissionalsoparticipatesinthe work ofthe IEA Please note that this publication issubject to specific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. The terms andconditions are available online atwww.iea.org/terms. IEAAccession countries: BrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaIsraelRomania This publication, as well as any dataand map included herein,are withoutprejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city orarea. IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndia Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract The Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2026 is the seventh edition ofthis World Energy Outlook Special Report, making Southeast Asia byfar the most regularly updated regional outlook compiled by theInternational Energy Agency (IEA). This reflects the dynamism of theregion, as well as the importance of the IEA’s partnership with theeleven countries that make up the Association of Southeast AsianNations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, LaoPeople’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, thePhilippines,Singapore,Thailand,Timor-Leste(joined ASEAN in2025) and Viet Nam. As energy security concerns move ever higher on the policy agenda,this year’s report explores the trajectory that the region was on priortothe conflict in the Middle East,and discusses the potentialimplications of the energy crisis triggered by this conflict for policypriorities and investment strategies in the region. Foreword The world has been facing the largest energy security threat inhistory as a result of the Middle East conflict. Many governments arereshaping their energy policies in response. Southeast Asia is amongthe regions most exposed to the energy impacts of the crisis, whilealso being one of the key economic centres that will drive futureglobal growth. their stages of development, industrial structures, political systems,geographyand energy needs,but diversification and strongerregional cooperation will be central to the response. In 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) opened its SingaporeOffice, the first office outside its Paris headquarters in the Agency’shistory. This Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, started in 2013 and nowin its seventh edition, reflects the IEA’s deepening dialogue withASEAN member states and industry stakeholders, as well as theAgency’s objective data and analysis. Against the backdrop of thecrisis, it aims to provide regional stakeholders with comprehensivedata, insights and guidance. Over the past two decades, Southeast Asia’s economic expansionand rising energy demand have been underpinned by abundant andaffordable domestic resources, mainly hydropower, coal and naturalgas. However, the region’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil importshas continued to rise: in 2024, the Middle East accounted for 60% ofimported crude oil, or more than 35% of total crude oil supply whendomestic resources are included, and around 45% of refined oilproducts in the region were derived from Middle Eastern crude.Governments acted quickly to cushion the immediate shock, butdelivering a sustainable, affordable and secure energy system willrequire structural transformations of the region’s energy supply. This report is also the result of a strong collective effort across theIEA. Under the leadership of Tim Gould, Chief Energy Economist, anoutstanding team worked with great expertise and dedication. I wouldlike to express my sincere appreciation to all colleagues and partners,both inside and outside the IEA, whose expertise and support madethis report possible. Looking ahead, SoutheastAsia alone accounts for 20% of theincrease in global energy demand to 2035. By 2050, its energydemand is set to be more than three times Japan’s current level. Tomeet this strong growth, policy makers face important choices abouthow to recalibrate energy policies in light of the vulnerabilities thathave been revealed by the crisis. ASEAN countries differ widely in Dr. Fatih BirolExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency Davina TillandEleni Tsoukalaprovided essential suppor