2026年展望 - 中国及东南亚：基于价值和关键驱动因素的首选

Peter Milliken, CFAResearch Analyst We see three drivers for China We expect SE Asia and China to lead the region in 2026, and focus this report onChina, which we believe will remain in a bull upcycle. The country's industriescontinue to lift value add, as we noted in China Eats The World and we expect three nLiquidity still supportive:The tailwind from fiscal and monetary supportwithin China, and globally was important in 2025, and 2026 shapes up aslikely to roll prior support in China, and increase fiscal support in the West.The extreme level of household bank deposits in China, and the unleashingof these funds onto the market should remain a factor - but less of one. Industrial model getting fine tuned:In our experience, the highestprobability way to make solid returns on stocks, is to buy when themanagement, boards and shareholders have exceeded their tolerance for most importantly, let prices rise relative to costs. This is what anti-involutionrepresents, albeit at a centrally directed level, and we expect it to becomea wider feature of the market. In Fig 4, we can see some discipline being Political pivot to lift confidence:Lifting consumption is critical, given theinvestment-led growth model seems to have exceeded its best before date.We in APAC equity strategy believe change needs to happen. Reform is inthe ascendancy as seen by policies like anti-involution and "investment in people" (not just fixed assets) as part of the 2026 work plan. "Opening up"has also featured as the biggest riser among focus areas for the 15thFive- Liquidity still supportive The "uninvestable" reversal When countries like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea were in periods of corporateascendancy, their stock markets soared, with Japan's up 50x in 20 years through itspeak, and South Korea's up 15x from its GFC trough and 30x in the last 40 years. TheMSCI China index is up six-fold from 2003 lows, and China does represent 13% ofglobal market capitalization, yet all key HK/CH indices are below their 2007 peaks,and we expect such peaks to be substantially exceeded during this bull market.While China's market is large, Japan's peaked at around 45% of global market cap,and we find that major funds typically hold only around 2% China exposure, or one-fifteenth of China's manufacturing value-add share. We estimate a 1% swing in Global loosening should help The final Politburo meeting of the year in December focused on keeping fiscal andmonetary policy unchanged, which means "more proactive" fiscal policy and"moderately loose" monetary policy. Our economics team assumes a fiscal deficitremaining at 4% of GDP and an unchanged policy rate at 1.4%. "Building a strong There is also considerable loosening happening globally, which should benefitChina, with the US preparing USD2,000 stimulus cheques and ending quantitativetightening, Japan preparing a USD110bn stimulus package, Germany lifting China should also benefit from the global capex boom, from AI, reshoring, anddefense. While the rate-cut cycle is more mixed globally, the 200bp of US rate cutssince September 2024 is the fastest pace of cuts outside a recession since the Asia Strategy Industrial model fine tuning On our Monday commute home we saw... China continues to industrialize rapidly. We took the photos above while returningfrom a company visit on Monday in Shenzhen. If we had paid more attention, wewould likely have seen one of Pony.ai's 1,000 robotaxis now running in the city.Change has been helped by China's scale, its full supply chains, plus depth andvolume of talent and IP. We expect further monetization ahead, with the country The challenge for corporates is to grow earnings faster than investment, and to getmarginal investment returns above WACC. This appears to be the goal ofgovernment,and yet China's GDP growth targets seem inconsistent with Asia Strategy Source : NBS, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source : NBS, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank China typically produces one-third to half of the world's products across industries.Being the largest manufacturing base in the world allows these gains to be lockedin due to the scale of on-the-ground testing, research, and experience. Add to thatthe volume of graduates in STEM subjects, low relative wages, and a shortage ofjobs that creates a need for the young to push hard to make their way, and it would The effort to succeed is widely known, yet still under appreciated. China'sdominance is evident in export data, but less so in the more profitable area of globalbrand value. As the country transitions from building global scale to global brands,higher margins should follow and we expect this to probably show through in Needing to revive its growth model While China's aging population gets headlines, increasingly commentators arefocusing on its other aging problem - its investment-driven growth model. However,of the other six major cases of mercantilist growth policies that we and dbLuminacame