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欧洲资本品行业:施耐德电气SU.FPQ2反馈-损益表定价加速

电气设备 2026-06-26 伯恩斯坦 坚守此念
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European Capital GoodsSchneider Electric SA Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 310.00 EUR SU.FP Schneider: Q2 feedback - Pricing in P&L set to accelerate (finally) Ahead of Q2 results on 30 July, Schneider hosted a group call to update the sell-side on themost recent trends and key messages ahead of the quiet period. We regularly participate incalls with companies towards the end of each quarter, making sure we are up-to-date withtheir latest communications ahead of any “quiet period” and comment on these discussionssoon after these calls.We found the call to be incrementally positivewith Schneiderconfirmingpricing actions made from Q1 are flowing through the P&L, with costs Close Date25 Jun 2026SU.FP Close Price (EUR)279.55Price Target (EUR)310.00Upside/(Downside)11%52-Week Range293.70/208.80EDME1,591.52FYEDecDiv Yield1.5%Market Cap (EUR) (M)161,017EV (EUR) (M)174,382 Pricing develops from the list to the field.Mgmt stated that “pretty strong” list priceincreases actioned globally on Jan 1st 2026 are to start flowing through the P&L in Q2. Thisis a key positive, given the disappointment after no sequential acceleration in pricing fromQ4'25 into Q1'26 (both c.2%), despite Schneider admitting to playing catch-up on pricing.H1 price/cost is still negative, and GM % flat to slightly down, though costs 'pretty stable'over the last few months is an additional relief given concerns around spiking inflation. Mgmthinted net-price-positivity can't be a December phenomenon, and must come fairly soon in End market comments suggest demand remains robust:North America continues todeliver strong growth, primarily driven by data centers, while residential remains subdued.China and East Asia are confirming the strong start to the year, with momentum led bydata centers, semis and discrete, although buildings and process automation were flaggedas remaining softer. Europe is tracking similarly, albeit Q1 benefited by easier comps.Elsewhere, India remains a standout with broad-based strength across segments andend markets, while the Pacific region is also performing well. The Middle East is seeing Other points to note:There was a relatively benign message on FCF with the CFO highlighting the usual seasonality (H2 skew)but affirming that cons of €1.4bn was still something that could be achieved. FY guidance on scope is unchanged and whilst thesame is true for FX, they might come back and update this at the H1 stage (...as rates have turned more favourable). INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Schneider Outperform with a target price of €310. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective VALUATION METHODOLOGY Schneider Electric SA Our PT of €310 for Schneider is based on DCF with a WACC of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. We think a DCF isappropriate for Schneider as it’s a cash generative company and delivers stable cash flows irrespective of the point in the cycle. RISKS Schneider Electric SA Key downside risks to our price target and forecasts: 1) We assume growth rate of c.11% for 2026 which assumes continuedstrength in Energy Management and improvement in IA. 2) Pull back in data center demand given technology changes which alterthe composition of electrical infrastructure required in data centers and therefore demand for certain Schneider Electric products.3) Imposition of additional tariffs in the US that lower demand for Schneider’s products given weaker consumer buying power (we RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, ver