无熊之地：第24期EMSentiment调查

SK Hynix(000660 KP) Buy:2Q26 preview–another robust 2QandADR premium Korea ◆Strong 2Q supported byrisingDRAM and NAND prices aswell as soaring NANDmargins MAINTAIN BUY ◆HBM price hikes power a robust 2H26e and 2027e;ADRmomentum also a positive catalyst TARGET PRICE(KRW)4,000,0002,900,000SHARE PRICE(KRW)2,555,000+56.6%(as of23 Jun 2026) ◆Maintain Buy; Raise TP to KRW4m (from KRW2.9m); we nowprefer SK Hynix within our global memory coverage Soaring 2Q26 earnings:Driven by (1) DRAM and NAND ASPrisesof +40% q-o-qand +50% q-o-q, (2) improved NAND margins from the 321-layer upgrade, (3) 2%KRW depreciation, we expectOPslightly above consensus at KRW66trn (+76% q-o-q,+618% y-o-y) onKRW82trnsales (+56% q-o-q, +269% y-o-y). Withrising demand forcontext memory storage (CMS) and eSSD for server and cluster storage, NAND price Year to12/2025a12/2026e12/2027e12/2028eHSBC EPS62330.20324700.08 516787.06 551482.82HSBC EPS (prev)62330.20287363.28 421806.97 443537.44Change (%)0.013.022.524.3Consensus EPS56031.11308325.13 438047.69 463124.59PE (x)41.07.94.94.6Dividend yield (%)0.10.81.11.2EV/EBITDA (x)29.65.43.02.2ROE (%)44.296.869.544.0 HBM price hikes to lead 2H growth:Continued DRAM and NAND pricerises shoulddrivea28% q-o-q rise in OP to KRW84trn, onKRW104trnsales (+27% q-o-q, +327%y-o-y). HBM price hikes should underpin stronger growth, supported by 50-60%market share. HBM has been losing its premium to commodity DRAMdespite thechip-size penalty; we expectmemory makers to raise HBM3E 12-highprices. A 40– We apply a 20% premium fortheADR listing:The company filed its plans for theADR listing on 24 June (see: exhibit 1), andwe think it isnowappropriate to reflectthis in our valuation.PeerMicron has traded at an average 35% premium to SKHynix over the past 13 years, driven by (1) better access to US investors, (2) a moreshareholder-friendly policy, and (3) higher beta supported by a smaller earnings Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 Han Kil Chang*Research Analyst, Korea TechnologyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com Agentic AI and CSP capex drive demand:We see the memory cycleassimilar to1990-95’ssupercycle, while agentic AI liftsgeneral-server unit shipments 20%/21%in 2026/27e, supported by sustained CSP investment as ROIC improves. AI is alsobroadening memory demand beyond HBM to lower-cost options (e.g., SO-CAMM2, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy; Raise TP to KRW4m (from KRW2.9m); prefer SKHynix:On stronger commodity memory and HBM pricing, we raise 2026/27/28eOP by8%/17%/18%. We apply a 3.4x target P/B toourupdated 2027/28e average BVPS toderiveourTP, whichimplies8xPEon 2027/28e average EPS; our OP is 3-7% aboveconsensus. Risks: higher US rates,strongcapacity adds, Middle East conflict. No country for bears| The 24thedition of the EM Sentiment Survey Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures &DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:SK Hynix Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 23 Jun 2026 Source:WSTS, TrendForce, Company data, HSBC estimates Source:WSTS, TrendForce, Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates. Source: Company data, HSBC estimates. Note: HBM sales portioncalculated as apercentage of total DRAM sales. Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source: Company data,HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source:TrendForce, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:Semianalysis, HSBC Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensusestimates Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensus for Capex, Visible alpha consensus for operating cash flow estimates Source:Company data, Bloomberg, HSBC. Source:HSBC estimates (see:Global tech–Open AI: Commitments vs cash flowsrevisited, 24 Nov 2025, by Nicolas Cote-Colisson) , Bloomberg consensusestimates Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensusestimates Source:HSBC estimates Exhibit28.Details of historicalupcyclesof the DRAM market, by key events Upcycles(1) 1990-1995 Personal computer (PC) boom, widespread adoption of PCbyhouseholds,leading to growth in DRAM demand(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the 'Y2K' crisis, leading to even stronger PC replacement investment(3) 2002-2006Demand for downloadable services spiked with the help of slim notebook demand from LCD,release of iPod, and development of legacy cell phones(4) 2009-2010Launch