24届EM情绪调查：无熊的世界——国内半导体制程设备龙头NAURA前景分析

EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment China ◆Domestic semi capexbroadeningsupports further upside◆Platform strategy opens growthvectors in glass substrates◆Maintain Buy;raise TP to RMB1,031.90from RMB528.40 MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)1031.90528.40SHARE PRICE(CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE841.82+22.6%(as of02 Jul 2026) Further upside ahead.Withthe upward capex revisionofdomestic memory players,NAURA’s share price hasrisen57% over the past two months, but still lagging theWindSemiconductor Equipment Index’s 72% gain. The relative underperformance ismainly due to: 1) concerns over the gross margin trendpost-1Q results; and 2) lowerrevenue exposure to memory customers compared with peers such as AMEC andPiotech. Looking ahead, we expect the company to leverage its broad productportfolio to capture incremental orders across memory, logic, and glass substratecustomers,realising 27%-28% top line growth in 2026-28e.Therefore,whilewe lowerour 2026/27 net profit estimates by30%/25% to factor in higher operating expensesduring the expansion period, we expect afaster2026-28 net profit CAGR of 43% (vs.31% 2025-27e net profit CAGR before). MARKET DATA Benefiting from both memory and logic capacity expansion.In memory, CXMT/YMTC’sc.8%/c.13% global DRAM/NAND share remains well below China’s c.25%/c.30% share of demand(source:company data, TrendForce), leaving significant roomfor domestic substitution, whilethe two companies’potential IPO fundraising couldsupport further expansionamid the memory price upcycle. In logic, China’s reported plantoexpandadvanced capacitybyc500k wafersbefore2030(Reuters,25 February2026), and USD9.8bn of Dutch lithography imports in2025(+3%yoy, butASP +37%yoy,per GACCstatistics) all point to a step-up in advanced foundry capex. NAURA’sbroad platformstrategy positions it well to capture this cycle,with cross-process productcoverage enhancing tool-level synergy. We, hence, expect its ordersfrom memory/logiccustomers to grow 50%+/30%+ in 2026. Unlocking incremental TAM in glass substrate market.We estimate equipmentand materials account for c10% of the USD11.3bn glass substrate marketby2032.The shift to glass mandates Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) for seed layer deposition,where NAURA already has a commercial foothold.In addition,NAURAofferstheyield-critical descum and PIQequipment, with upcomingelectroplating tool leveragingitsexisting TSV expertise(source: company data).NAURAis rapidly evolving into acomprehensive solution provider, and we believeit is well positioned tocapture agrowing sharein the glass substrate market. Cara Su* (Reg. No. S1700525070001)Analyst, A-share IT Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcara.z.h.su@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 50662080 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy; raise TP to RMB1,031.90.We continue to value the stock with a PSmultiple.We apply2027e11.7x PS target multiple (previously 7.5x), in line with itsglobal peers’ average as our 2026-28erevenue CAGR of 27% (previously 2024-27erevenue CAGR of 29%) is largely in line with the global peers’ average revenueCAGR of 26%.Against our2027erevenue per share of RMB88.20(previously2026erevenue per shareof RMB70.88), we raise our target price to RMB1,031.90(fromRMB528.40), implying c23% upsidefrom the current level. We maintain our Buyrating. Therelease of its TGV ECP equipment could be a share price catalyst. Seepage5forkey downside risks. No country for bears The 24thedition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:NAURA Technology Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates Wedecreaseour 2026-27eEPSestimatesby31% and25%,respectively, as we: ◆Trimour2026revenueestimatesby2%, mainly as we factor in: 1)rising demand fromdomesticmemoryand advanced logic customers,while hedged by the shrinking ordersfrom solar cellmanufacturers, and2)better than expected performance of electroniccomponent business, driven by the solid demand from large-scale customers. ◆Decrease our2026and 2027blendedGPM estimates by 1.6pptand1.8ppt, respectively,mainly to factor in: 1)the consolidation of Kingsemi, given that Kingsemi’s semiconductorequipment has a lower GPM than Naura’s, and 2) the rising price burden brought by marketsharecompetitionin certain area. ◆Increase our total operating expenses estimates by 19%/16% in 2026-27e, given thatNaura is rapidly expanding its personnel scale in this year and the next. Weexpecttheproportion of operatingexpenseto decrease in 2028e. With this report, we also introduce our 2028revenueestimateof RMB81,302m and net profitestimate of RMB14,204m. Looking in