无熊之境：AI贸易如何重绘亚洲贸易地图

Shared circuits EconomicsAsia HowAIisredrawingAsia’s trade map ◆AI trade is reshaping Asia’s trade map, creating newcorridors and deeper intra‑Asian supply‑chain integration ◆Asia is becoming an AI demand centre. Global AI compute anddatacentre investment is expanding beyond the US andChina ◆Near-term risks: front‑loading payback as inventoriesnormalise, and chip price spikes adding to inflation pressures Ines LamEconomist, AsiaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedines.y.k.lam@hsbc.com.hk+852 22887131 AI trade shifts into high gear AI is delivering what trade deals long promised:deeperregionaltrade and supplychainintegration. Intra-AsianAI trade has doubled to nearly USD2trn in 2025 versuspre‑pandemic levels, with intermediate inputsaccounting for83% (Chart 1). Frederic NeumannChief Asia Economist, Co-head Global Research AsiaTheHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4556 Thisisn’t justabouthighervolumes, but new routesandstructures.AI is rewiringregionalproduction networksinto multi-directional corridors linking layers of the valuechain. ThegrowingKorea–Taiwan corridor is anotable shift,emergingahead ofKorea’s broader tradesurgein 2026. North Asia–ASEANflows have also acceleratedas Korea and Taiwan source more inputs from ASEAN. Korea’s exports to mainlandChina have rebounded,flippingthe balance from deficit to surplus, reflectingmainlandChina’sdemand for high‑performance memory for advanced AI training. Abanti BhaumikAssociateBangalore Demand remains concentrated in the US and China, but Asia is increasinglybecoming an AI demand centre as data‑centre investment and enterprise adoptionscale, supporting a region‑wide capex upswing. Near‑term risks include afront‑loading payback and inflation spillovers from higher chip and electronics prices. No country for bears The 24thedition of the EM Sentiment Survey This is our latest report on the Trade & Capital Flows theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Click to view Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Asia’s dominancein AI-enabling goods To analyse the AI trade value chain in more detail, weused the World Trade Organization’sdefinition of“AI‑enabling goods1”, which encompasses a basket of 105 goodsat the HS 6‑digitlevel, grouped into three indicative categories: raw materials and processed chemicals (17),intermediate inputs (74) and equipment (14). These categories are based on a non‑exhaustivelist of HS codes and may include items not exclusively used in the AI value chain. Unlessotherwise stated, trade values are sourced from ITC Trade Map and HSBC calculations. The composition of AI trade helps explain why Asia’s position has become so entrenched.Intermediate inputs,comprisingprocessed or partially manufactured goods,that feed intodownstream AI hardware, are the largest category, accounting for 73% of total AI-enabling tradevalue in 2025. Equipment represents a further 26%, while raw materials and chemicals make upjust 1%.Asia’s dominance is most pronounced in intermediate inputs (Chart 2), reflecting theregion’s scale, supplier density and tightly linkedproduction ecosystems. Asia’s strongest grip is inintermediate inputs Within intermediate inputs,mainlandChina’s market share has been broadly stable at around 17%over the past decade. The bigger shift has been the rise of the rest of Asia. Asian economiesexcluding Chinagained 9 percentage points, from 46.2% in 2015 to 55.2% in 2025 (Chart 2).Thesegainshavecome largely at the expense of developed economies, such as the US and Europe, as wellas Japan, consistent with the “China plus one” or dual supply chain strategy across multiple industries. Diversification beyond Chinaisevident The transfer of market share in equipment trade from China to the rest of Asia is evident: non-China Asia’s share rose sharply to 42.9% in 2025, from 23% in 2015.signalling a morediversified export landscape and a wider set of Asian production bases. By contrast, the US andEurope have seen a relative decline in market share across all three categories over the pastdecade. One exception is upstream: Europe has gained share in raw materials and processedchemicals used in AI‑enabling products. Even so, with upstream goods representing only 1% oftotal AI trade value, the strategic weight of the supply chain remains downstream,where Asiacontinues to be the indispensable hub of global AI trade. Asia’s lead is broadening Asia’s share in global AItrade rose from 62% in 2015to 69% in 2025 At the countrylevel, Table 1 shows some dramatic shifts in market share across theAI-enablingvalue chain between 2015 and 2025. Asia’s dominance isn’t jus