无熊之境：人工智能如何重塑亚洲贸易格局

EconomicsAsia Shared circuits HowAIisredrawingAsia’s trade map ◆AI trade is reshaping Asia’s trade map, creating newcorridors and deeper intra‑Asian supply‑chain integration ◆Asia is becoming an AI demand centre. Global AI compute anddatacentre investment is expanding beyond the US andChina ◆Near-term risks: front‑loading payback as inventoriesnormalise, and chip price spikes adding to inflation pressures Ines LamEconomist, AsiaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedines.y.k.lam@hsbc.com.hk+852 22887131 AI trade shifts into high gear AI is delivering what trade deals long promised:deeperregionaltrade and supplychainintegration. Intra-AsianAI trade has doubled to nearly USD2trn in 2025 versus Frederic NeumannChief Asia Economist, Co-head Global Research AsiaTheHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4556 Thisisn’t justabouthighervolumes, but new routesandstructures.AI is rewiringregionalproduction networksinto multi-directional corridors linking layers of the valuechain. ThegrowingKorea–Taiwan corridor is anotable shift,emergingahead ofKorea’s broader tradesurgein 2026. North Asia–ASEANflows have also acceleratedas Korea and Taiwan source more inputs from ASEAN. Korea’s exports to mainland Abanti BhaumikAssociateBangalore Demand remains concentrated in the US and China, but Asia is increasinglybecoming an AI demand centre as data‑centre investment and enterprise adoptionscale, supporting a region‑wide capex upswing. Near‑term risks include a No country for bears This is our latest report on the Trade & Capital Flows theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Asia’s dominancein AI-enabling goods To analyse the AI trade value chain in more detail, weused the World Trade Organization’sdefinition of“AI‑enabling goods1”, which encompasses a basket of 105 goodsat the HS 6‑digitlevel, grouped into three indicative categories: raw materials and processed chemicals (17),intermediate inputs (74) and equipment (14). These categories are based on a non‑exhaustive The composition of AI trade helps explain why Asia’s position has become so entrenched.Intermediate inputs,comprisingprocessed or partially manufactured goods,that feed intodownstream AI hardware, are the largest category, accounting for 73% of total AI-enabling tradevalue in 2025. Equipment represents a further 26%, while raw materials and chemicals make up Within intermediate inputs,mainlandChina’s market share has been broadly stable at around 17%over the past decade. The bigger shift has been the rise of the rest of Asia. Asian economiesexcluding Chinagained 9 percentage points, from 46.2% in 2015 to 55.2% in 2025 (Chart 2).These Diversification beyond Chinaisevident The transfer of market share in equipment trade from China to the rest of Asia is evident: non-China Asia’s share rose sharply to 42.9% in 2025, from 23% in 2015.signalling a morediversified export landscape and a wider set of Asian production bases. By contrast, the US andEurope have seen a relative decline in market share across all three categories over the pastdecade. One exception is upstream: Europe has gained share in raw materials and processed Asia’s lead is broadening Asia’s share in global AItrade rose from 62% in 2015to 69% in 2025 At the countrylevel, Table 1 shows some dramatic shifts in market share across theAI-enablingvalue chain between 2015 and 2025. Asia’s dominance isn’t just growing. It’s becoming morebroad-based, with different economiesgaining ground in different parts of the supply chain and The most striking change is in intermediate inputs, where Taiwan’s market share jumped from7.2% in 2015 to 13.5% in 2025. Several ASEAN economies,particularly Vietnam, Malaysia and In equipment, theshift is even more dramatic.Equipment trade isfar lessChina-centricthanin2015. Capacity has been reallocatedaway from Chinaand spread across a wider set of Asian China’s share in equipmentmore than halved during this Vietnamrepresentsthe largest single-economy gains in the table, with market shareinequipment increasingfrom 1.2% to 12.4% over the decade.Taiwan also gained significantshare,followed by Singapore and Thailand, reinforcing the broader trend of supply chains Vietnam the biggest winner Asia’s dominance is now translating into a sharp early‑2026 acceleration. AI tradestrengthenedfurther in 1Q26 versus 2025, led by a shift at the top: Korea overtook Taiwan as thefastest‑growing exporter of AI‑enabling goods (Chart 3). Taiwan had led the upswing through Asia’sAI goods tradejumped56% y-o-yin 1Q26 The acceleration is broad-based. Most other Asian ec