爱马仕二手定价追踪（2026年6月）-二级市场溢价回升

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comYi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - June 2026 - Secondarymarket multiples are firming up, now to 1.45x We update our secondhand Hermès Birkin and Kelly price tracker to incorporate prices from recent auctions. The underlying dataset isavailable on request. This update includes data from two auctions: one held by Sotheby’s in New York, and another held by Christie’s in Paris. Both auctionsclosed on 24 June 2026. Of the 701 auction lots listed across both auctions, 34 lots fell within our basket of bags: 7 Birkin 25s in Togoleather, 5 Birkin 30 Togos, 9 Kelly 25 Epsoms, 6 Kelly 28 Epsoms, 2 Kelly Pochette Swifts, and 5 Mini Kelly II Epsoms. This brings thetotal number of handbags tracked in 2Q26 to 74 vs. 90 at the end of 2Q25. This update reinforces the view that secondary market resale multiples for Hermès may have started to stabilize,with resaleprice premiums for our core Birkin/Kelly tracker rising to 1.45x in 2Q26 from 1.25x in 1Q26 and the recent low of 1.22x in 4Q25.Our expanded tracker, which includes data on the Kelly Pochette and Mini Kelly II, sees price premiums also stable at 1.66x in 2Q26vs. 1.63x in 1Q26. One quarter’s data point does not make a trend - we would expect our resale multiple estimates to weaken againin 3Q26 as the location of auctions naturally skews towards Hong Kong where resale multiples are lower. Nevertheless, we believefurther evidence of stabilization - signaled by stable seasonal highs and lows - or even improvement in resale multiple trends wouldhelp to soothe a portion of investor concerns around Hermès. Hermès continues to experience a soft patch of brand momentum, particularly among aspirational consumers in China.SeeComment: Hermès - Key themes ahead of 2Q26 and Hermès: Confirming a cautious outlook for 2Q26E. This follows from 1Q26’sGroup OSG of +5.6%, which had prompted a significant reset in valuations (see Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset'). A slight sequential top-line acceleration in 2Q26E now seems to be a reasonable expectation, with more to come in 2H26E,supported by more high-end tourist spend, more retail space growth (i.e. the newly opened New Bond Street store in London), anda progressive acceleration in leather goods volumes. Whether this will be sufficient to sustainably reflate valuations in the near-termremains to be seen. Recent share price gyrations point to significant pockets of investor appetite for Hermès, and the broader luxurysector, but also suggest that clearer signs of a global demand revival (especially among Chinese consumers) may be required tosustain excitement. Looking beyond this soft patch, we remain constructive on Hermès:Hermès enjoys deep brand equity. It remains betterequipped than most soft luxury peers, including LVMH, to tackle further consumer polarization in the luxury industry (see Global LuxuryGoods: Preparing for consumer polarisation and Global Luxury Goods: Preparing for Consumer Polarisation - Part 2). For more notes in this series, see: Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker, and updates in Sep'25, Oct'25, Nov'25, Dec'25 (with afocus on the Mini Kelly II), Feb'26, Mar'26 (with a comparison to another luxury icon, the Rolex Daytona), early-Apr’26, and in May'26. We update our secondhand Hermès Birkin and Kelly price tracker to incorporate prices from recent auctions. The underlying dataset isavailable on request. This update includes data from two auctions: one held by Sotheby’s in New York, and another held by Christie’s in Paris. Both auctions closedon 24 June 2026. Of the 701 auction lots listed across both auctions, 34 lots fell within our basket of bags: 7 Birkin 25s in Togo leather, 5Birkin 30 Togos, 9 Kelly 25 Epsoms, 6 Kelly 28 Epsoms, 2 Kelly Pochette Swifts, and 5 Mini Kelly II Epsoms. This brings the total number ofhandbags tracked in 2Q26 to 74 vs. 90 at the end of 2Q25. This update reinforces the view that secondary market resale multiples for Hermès may have started to stabilize,with resale pricepremiums for our core Birkin/Kelly tracker rising to 1.45x in 2Q26 from 1.25x in 1Q26 and the recent low of 1.22x in 4Q25. Our expandedtracker, which includes data on the Kelly Pochette and Mini Kelly II, sees price premiums also stable at 1.66x in 2Q26 vs. 1.63x in 1Q26.One quarter’s data point does not make a trend - we would expect our resale multiple estimates to weaken again in 3Q26 as the location ofauctions naturally skews towards Hong Kong where resale multiples are lower. Nevertheless, we believe further evidence of stabilization- signaled by stable seasonal highs and lows - or even improvement in resale multiple trends would help to soothe a portion of investorconcerns around Hermès. Hermès continues to experience a soft patch of brand momentum, parti