模型修订：强劲订单但盈利交付仍看似季度后

GDS Holdings (GDS.O) Model Revisions; Strong Booking but Earnings Delivery Still Seems CITI’S TAKE1Q26 results were soft in terms of revenue and move-in pace vs. expectation whereas adj. EBITDA was inline. Key takeaways from post-results call: 1) Record ~200MW quarterly bookings with YTD-2Q26 Kyna WongAC+852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.com Kevin Chen+852-2501-2125kevin.y.chen@citi.com Model revisions, new TP at US$58.1 —We revise our model to factor in 1Q26 resultsand guidance and introduce FY27 and FY28E projections;we now project FY26Eprofit of Rmb2.27bn vs. prior Rmb547mn loss. Our SOTP-based TP is revised to $58.1(from $51.2), which is largely based on still 15x EV/EBITDA on its China business butrollover to 2027E basis (from 2026E) as the strong order commitment it received willlikely contribute mostly from 2H27. Karen Huang+852-2501-2755karen.xw.huang@citi.com Shares weakness on revenue disappointment —We understand that a strong 1Q26revenue was backed by one-off item recognition which was out of investors’expectation and implied that the full year organic revenue guidance was a miss.Besides, move-in pace was down QoQ in 1Q26, which raised concerns on the GDS’s project yield reasonable —A 19-May-2026 report by accounting research firmGMT Research on GDS concerning its financial indicators noted that capital-intensive expansion doesn’t guarantee shareholder value and examined some of See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations GDS’s accounting metrics. We think the assessment is debatable. In our view, GDS’s use of a ~10% cash GP yield, implying areasonable 10-year project payback, is commercially sound. GDS has a strong balance sheet, effective management, andtangible assets, positioning it as a solid leader in China’s IDC industry, in our view. Data centers are cornerstone assets for the Key takeaways from 1Q26 post result call: Order Pipeline & MOU Conversion:Total signed contracts + MOUs now exceed1GW(vs. last quarter update of 200MWcommitment + 500MW MOUs). MOU-to-contract conversion cycle is ~1.5 years; however, recent conversion speed hasexceeded historical norms, suggesting demand urgency is intensifying. Full-year order target: 500–800MW, with 340MW Customer & Competitive Landscape: GDS has further diversified its customer base beyond the three major internet clients,with AI-driven demand adding large single-order volumes. Current 2026 guidance is based entirely on domestic chip supply —imported chips represent a potential upside scenario. Company strategically avoids low-price bids to maintain customer Move-In Pace Slowed Down YTD:1Q26 net move-in was 16,000 sqm; management expects rebounding to >20,000 sqm in3Q and 4Q. Full-year 2026 total move-in expected to exceed 70,000 sqm. Significant step-up expected in 2027, particularly in2H27, as 1Q26’s record orders begin delivering. Development Cost Efficiency:Unit development cost on a like-for-like basis has decreased ~15% over the past three years,primarily driven by MEP (Mechanical Electrical Plant) cost reductions, which account for ~70% of total development cost.Land, concrete, steel and construction costs have remained stable. Capital Allocation & Leverage: Pro forma Net Debt/EBITDA at4.7x; expected to gradually rise to 5–6x as capex ramps —management views this as acceptable, with asset monetisation available as a lever above 6.5x. Medium-term domestic capexplan of Rmb30–50bn over the next three years to be executed within the above leverage framework. Landbank of Source: Citi Research GDS HoldingsCompany description GDS, founded in 2000, is a carrier-neutral datacenter operator in China and overseas, while it also provides other services such as hosting, cloud computing, and IT-managed offerings. The company has self-built datacenters in Shanghai, Shenzhen,Beijing, Chengdu, and Hebei with 674,269 sqm area in service as of 1Q26. Investment strategyWe rate GDS shares Buy given its high exposure to the rapidly growing AI/cloud market. We expect an increase in domestic AI capex to accelerate its de-stocking and deleveraing, while DCs of GDS China could see a higher utilization rate ahead, while itsinternational arm (through equity investment) should also enjoy acceleraing overseas DC deployment of domestic CSPs ahead. ValuationOur target price for GDS of US$58.1/share is based on SoTP of 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA on GDS China. Risks Downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price include: 1) Revenue fluctuations: The move-in ofmajor clients could be lumpy; delays might significantly impact GDS performance. 2) Policy: Chinese government encouragesoperators to build capacity, which may lead to over-capacity. 3) Execution: Whether GDS can deliver its datacenter pipeline ontime to serve its pre-committed clients. 4) Increasing competition: Well-funded competitors could build datacentersirrationally and compete with a lower price. 5) Rising utility co