如何在2030年之前赢得金融市场基础设施

Back to the future Key trends and strategic imperativesfor tomorrow’s industry leaders Contents Deep dive: Artificial intelligence14 Conclusion42 Executivesummary Between 2020 and 2025, the Financial MarketInfrastructure (FMI) sector grew at an impressivecompound annual growth rate (CAGR) ofabout15%, expanding to $131 billion revenue by the endof the five years. The surge was driven by volatilityand secular growth across most asset classes,the deepening of capital markets, increased retailparticipation, financialization of physical asset classes, Enterprise AI is now creating both revenueopportunity and threat across FMI data and technology business lines.Exposureis highest in replicable data, analytics and workflowcomponents that lack proprietary content, deepembedding, network effects, regulatory relevance orsystem-of-work/source-of-origin status. We estimatearound 9% of industry revenue (closeto $12billion)is at direct risk, with an additional 16%(or $21billion)at risk without active mitigation. The ability to retain Yet AI could also unlock around $9 billion of incrementalrevenue, on top of underlying sector growth. This wouldbe through three levers: new AI-enabled products, The rise of enterprise AI is nowstress-testingwhichof those acquisitions are truly synergistic.Diversification into strategically and operationallysynergistic adjacencies should prove valuableand defensible. Less connected extensions, Enterprise AI also creates a material cost andoperating leverage opportunity for thesector. We estimate that AI can deliver more than a 20% costreduction, raising the sector’s margins on earningsbefore interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization The largest opportunities sit in software engineeringand quality assurance, operations, risk, compliance,surveillance, and corporate functions, where AI cancompress cycle times, improve first-time-right rates,reduce cost-to-serve and increase reuse across registry, clearing, custody, settlement, and servicing,while moving early into asset pools where tokenizationsolves real friction and building secondary liquidity, Prediction markets and Compute contracts pointtoward the next wave of innovation for derivative Institutional adoptionof FMI-addressable, event-riskcontracts could becomea $3 billion to $5 billion annualrevenue pool in our base case. Between 60%and70% of revenue will be net new, coming from financialspeculation and hedging as well as deeper penetrationof retail and crypto native investors. The remainder will Realizing these benefits at scale requiresanAI factory approach, industrializing usecasesvia reusable components, shared data layers,and a value control tower. Scaling AI safelywillrequire FMIs to make governance part ofthe Meanwhile, the impact of tokenization is disruptingcore infrastructure rails while also expanding theperimeter of market infrastructure.Tokenizationcreates both a offensive and defensive imperative forFMIs, with as much as 35% of today’s revenue (around FMIs need to bolster theirmarket-building muscle and Yet broader asset-universe expansion could lift thesector revenue by about $25 billion of grossupsidemore than offsetting the $7 billion ofpotentialrevenue loss, with the biggest opportunitiesfrom While product build costs are modest, driving behavioralchange, liquidity formation, and scale require differentmarket-building capabilities. This involves distribution,incentives, community engagement, and data advantages, The speed and breadth of adoption will bedefinedby the automation, speed, liquidity, capital efficiency,and access benefits delivered via tokenization withinan FMI perimeter. In addition, regional and regulatory The same priority extends to contracts in new assetclasses like Compute where incumbent FMIs can applythe lessons learned from the commodities financializationjourney and build Compute into an over-the-counter On balance, our base outlook for the sectoris positive, but with greater distance betweenwinners and laggards.The sector’s “beta” remainsattractive with strong baseline growth: Infrastructurerevenue continues to benefit from secular deepeningacross most asset classes, rising complexity of risk Compute, combined with stronger AI monetizationin defensible data and workflow products. This couldpush sector revenue above $200 billion by 2030,with core infrastructure businesses winning back The winners in the next cycle will be those that areclear about how they organize themselves around four Market-of-record.Winners will prioritizeinvestments into asset classes with the highestsecular growth. They will defend trusted post-tradeeconomics as activity moves to new rails and new At the same time, the sources of “alpha” are shifting.AI will challenge parts of the data and technologyportfolio, but will also create upside from new products,faster product velocity, and cost transformation. System-of-work.Winners will defend embeddedtechnology positions where they sit deep in cl