2025缺口何在：美国中重型车2030年与2035年充电基础设施需求评估

Mind the gap An assessment of 2030 and 2035 charginginfrastructure needs for zero-emissionmedium- and heavy-duty vehicles inthe United States HAMILTON STEIMER, JAKOB SCHMIDT, YIHAO XIE, ARIJIT SEN,AND RAY MINJARES ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank all funders for their generous support of this work. They would alsolike to thank Hussein Basma, Marie Rajon Bernard, Logan Pierce, and Hongyang Qui fortheir helpful feedback. Thank you to Tomás Husted and the publications team for theirassistance in preparing this report. International Council on Clean Transportation1500 K Street NW, Suite 650Washington, DC 20005 communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) market in the UnitedStates continues to grow, with nearly 1,400 units sold during the first half of 2024. Asthis market develops, the charging network will have to expand to keep pace with thegrowing energy needs of ZE-MHDVs on the road. There has already been considerableinvestment in charging infrastructure for these vehicles: According to one estimate, asof early 2024, $30 billion in public, private, and utility financing had been announced ormade available to build charging infrastructure for ZE-MHDVs (Lepre, 2024). Continuedinvestment and supportive policies have contributed to the development of ZE-MHDVmarkets in first-mover states like California, and there are dozens of large-scalecharging infrastructure projects currently underway or planned across the country. Early market trends indicate a need for further investment in grid distribution capacityto support the growing network of high-powered chargers required for ZE-MHDVs,especially as other economic sectors also electrify. Experience from California showsthat charging facility energization timelines can span multiple years due to lengthyupstream grid infrastructure upgrades. Modeling tools like the ICCT’s HDV CHARGEmodel can be used to help electric utilities, charging infrastructure providers, and fleetoperators plan by projecting where, when, and how much charging infrastructure willbe needed to support ZE-MHDVs. In May 2023, we published our first national near-term charging infrastructure needsstudy for Class 4–8 ZE-MHDVs, projecting charging needs for 2025 and 2030 at thestate and county levels based on the near-term development of the zero-emissionvehicle (ZEV) market. The analysis also included insights from industry stakeholdersabout existing challenges and potential solutions for deploying sufficient charginginfrastructure to meet future ZE-MHDV demand. This report updates our 2023 analysis. We apply revised technology and chargingbehavior assumptions to produce charging estimates at the state and county levelsfor 2030 and 2035 under three policy scenarios—Reference, Compliance, and MarketPotential—that reflect low, moderate, and high levels of ZEV adoption. Our studyidentifies regional hotspots expected to experience the greatest infrastructure demandfrom ZE-MHDVs. Table ES1 presents the modeling results at the national level under each policy scenario. Intuitively, charging demands increase with higher ZEV adoption. By 2035, in theCompliance ZEV uptake scenario, an estimated 586,000 chargers are needed acrossthe country, approximately 565,000 (96%) of which are overnight chargers. Based onour modeling assumptions, lower-powered overnight chargers are expected to be thedominant charger power level in all three scenarios, but fast and ultrafast chargingwill also be important, especially for public en route charging. Figure ES1 displays theexpected county-level nameplate capacity under the Compliance scenario—that is,assuming a moderate level of electric truck adoption—in 2030. Figure ES1 With information on commercial real estate properties and private truck stops, wedetermined proxy charging locations to estimate charging needs at the hex-8 (0.28square mile) scale. This resolution is useful for system planners to assess the capacityand readiness of nearby distribution grid infrastructure. As an example, Figure ES2displays our Compliance scenario results for Tulsa, Oklahoma, which is in a countyranking in the top 5% in terms of projected ZE-MHDV energy consumption. Without anational dataset of bus and refuse truck depots, we show results only for single-unitand combination trucks. For these two vehicle segments, we estimate a daily energyneed of 70 MWh in 2030, increasing to 283 MWh by 2035. These trucks will thusrequire 278 total chargers with a nameplate capacity of 23 MW in 2030 and 1,034chargers with a nameplate capacity of 80 MW in 2035. Figure ES2 As MHDV electrification accelerates after 2030, the growing ZE-MHDV populationwill contribute to increasing energy demands on the grid. Given long lead timesfor upstream grid infrastructure upgrades, electric utilities and regulators shouldanticipate future MHDV electrification and assess the preparedness of their localelectrical grids. Mode