到2030年欧盟电池电动卡车的充电基础设施需求

HUSSEIN BASMA AND JAKOB SCHMIDT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank all internal reviewers of this report for their guidance andconstructive comments, with special thanks to Pierre-Louis Ragon, Hongyang Cui,Harsimran Kaur, Hamilton Steimer, Felipe Rodríguez, and Yidan Chu of the InternationalCouncil on Clean Transportation. Their reviews do not imply any endorsement of thecontent of this report. International Council on Clean TransportationFasanenstraße 85, 10623Berlin, Germany communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sales of battery electric trucks (BETs) in the European Union (EU) have steadilyincreased over the past few years. Uptake has increased across all truck segmentsand trucking applications, especially among light- and medium-duty trucks below12 tonnes. This trend is expected to accelerate over the next 5 years as truckmanufacturers need to ramp up BET sales to comply with the EU carbon dioxide (CO2)reduction targets for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). This growing BET fleet will requirean extensive network of truck-dedicated charging infrastructure to cover the trucks’energy needs. In 2023, the EU adopted the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation(AFIR), which aims to ensure minimum infrastructure support for alternative fuelvehicles, including BETs, by establishing mandatory targets for public electric vehiclecharger deployment across the EU. This paper quantifies BET charging needs in the 27 EU Member States (EU-27) in 2030.We use a modeling approach to estimate the stock of BETs in EU-27; we then estimatethe charging demands of this fleet, considering the energy consumption, drivingpatterns, and charging behavior of most truck classes and applications in the EU. Thisanalysis supports the following conclusions: »The expected BET fleet in the EU-27 by 2030 will require between 22 GW and 28GW of installed charging power capacity.This projected capacity is split almostequally between public and private chargers. This translates to 150,000–175,000private chargers and 60,000–80,000 public chargers. The top 5 Member States interms of BET charging demands—Germany, Poland, France, Spain, and Italy—areexpected to account for more than 70% of the total charging needs in the EU-27,given their high shares of the overall BET stock and traffic activity in the region(Figure ES1). »Overnight charging is expected to be the primary charging mode, while between4,000 and 5,300 megawatt (MW) chargers are projected to be needed by 2030.MW chargers comprise almost 15% of the projected installed charging power needsbut only 2% of the total number of chargers. Lower-power chargers, such as 350kW chargers, can cover more than half of the public fast charging needs for long-haul trucks. In addition, if long-haul trucks are equipped with larger batteries inthe future (720 kWh, relative to 600 kWh today), the need for MW chargers canbe reduced by 40%, significantly reducing these trucks’ reliance on public ultrafastcharging (Figure ES1). Total charging power needs in 2030 in Low and High BET uptake scenarios »The AFIR is expected to cover between 50% and 70% of public chargingneeds in the EU-27 by 2030. Across the core road network, AFIR targets areexpected to cover between 65% and 85% of total charging needs, while across thecomprehensive road network, coverage drops to 35%–45% (Figure ES2). At theMember State level, AFIR targets only cover 30% to 50% of the expected publiccharging needs in half of Member States, including the Netherlands and Belgium.This is because AFIR distance-based targets do not precisely reflect actual trafficactivity, which results in a large gap between the AFIR targets and the actualcharging needs for countries that host a high share of trucking activity but a lowshare of the road network. The opposite is true for countries like Romania, wherethe AFIR target is twice as high as the expected charging needs. Figure ES2 Total installed charger power covered under the AFIR versus expected publiccharging needs under Low and High BET uptake scenarios While AFIR targets may not cover the entirety of projected public charging needs in2030, the regulation, if fully implemented, will ensure basic coverage and help facilitatethe deployment of additional charging infrastructure through market forces. However,the scale of the required charging infrastructure will pose challenges for local grids,especially at high-power charging sites across the Trans-European Transport Network(TEN-T). In addition to grid congestion, lengthy permitting procedures and investmenthurdles may delay the timely deployment of the infrastructure. Many of thosechallenges could be addressed in the review of the AFIR and other complementarypolicies on grid planning, permitting, and investment. This analysis supports the following policy options and considerations: »Promote initiatives that focus on the deployment of HDV-specific charginginfrastructure across key transport corridors in the EU.S