第232条半导体进口关税的经济后果

TRELYSA LONG AND MEGHAN OSTERTAG|JUNE 2026 The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on semiconductor imports on national securitygrounds under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. These tariffs would raise ICT prices andthereby lower ICT consumption and capital stocks, which would reduce economic growth and KEY TAKEAWAYS The Trump administration has once again targeted semiconductor imports with tariffs,this time under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. ITIF finds that a 25 percent semiconductor tariff would reduce GDP by a cumulative$1.6 trillion, or 3.9 percent of U.S. GDP, if kept in place for a 10-year period. A 25 percent tariff would reduce U.S. GDP per capita by $170 in the first year and by acumulative total of $4,825 by the 10th year if the tariffs were sustained for that long. A 25 percent tariff on semiconductors would reduce ICT consumption by 26 percent,equating to a $12.5 billion decline in the consumption of ICT products. A 50 percent tariff on semiconductors would lead U.S. GDP growth to decline by 0.4percent in the first year and a cumulative 10.3 percent, or $4.4 trillion, if kept in placefor 10 years. The Trump administration should refrain from increasing Section 232 tariffs onsemiconductors and ideally should instead remove all existing blanket tariffs on Congress should extend the 25 percent investment tax credit through 2030 to incentivizedomestic semiconductor manufacturing, and apply it beyond just manufacturing to CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 2Modeling the Economic Impact of Possible U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs ................................... 3Framework ..................................................................................................................... 3Economic Analysis .......................................................................................................... 5Importance of Semiconductors in American Tech Leadership.................................................. 8Policy Recommendations .................................................................................................... 9Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 10 INTRODUCTION Semiconductors represent the foundational technology underpinning the modern digitaleconomy. The global semiconductor industry generated approximately $791.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to surpass $1 trillion by the end of the decade, while enabling anestimated $7 trillion in annual global economic activity through downstream industries andapplications.1These tiny yet extraordinarily sophisticated components power virtually every As such, semiconductors are not merely another traded product; they represent a critical capitalgood that supports productivity growth, innovation, and competitiveness across the broader U.S.economy. Indeed, American leadership and competitiveness in industries such as AI, quantumcomputing, cloud services, e-commerce, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing depend heavilyon reliable access to advanced semiconductor technologies. In many respects, semiconductorsfunction as the “electricity” of the digital economy: when semiconductor supply chains are Despite the central importance of semiconductors to U.S. economic growth and technologicalcompetitiveness, the Trump administration has once again targeted semiconductor imports withtariffs, this time under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, citing national securityconcerns. In an executive order issued in January 2026, the administration imposed a 25 percentad valorem duty rate on the import of certain advanced computing chips and certainderivative products.” While concerns about national security can be legitimate, applying Section 232 tariffs tosemiconductors risks undermining U.S. competitiveness and jeopardizing broader U.S. nationalsecurity objectives. Indeed, modern national security depends on maintaining technologicalleadership and economic strength, which semiconductor imports provide by supporting criticalU.S. technology industries. But with the implementation of tariffs, these U.S. industries will face higher costs to obtain the most advanced semiconductors from abroad. Indeed, as the Because semiconductors represent essential inputs for industries ranging from automobiles toconsumer electronics, tariffs that raise chip costs could increase prices, reduce consumerdemand, and discourage business investment across the broader economy. Rather thanstrengthening America’s strategic position, sweeping semiconductor tariffs could slowtechnological development, reduce business investment, weaken productivity growth, and impair This report proceeds