贸易与全球价值链整合的经济后果

Policy Research Working Paper9785 Economic Consequences of Trade and Global ValueChain Integration A Measurement Perspective Alessandro BorinMichele ManciniDaria Taglioni Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupSeptember 2021 Policy Research Working Paper9785 Abstract and upstream manufacturing. They also exaggerate risksduring critical stages like early trade liberalization inlarge economies. Additionally, it shows that traditionalbackward-forward classifications overestimate backwardlinkages. The new metrics, applied to established models,effectively predict trade disruption impacts, indicating thatGVC participation increases exposure to external shocks butalso enhances overall output stability by mitigating localshocks. Furthermore, GVC participation is a key driver ofthe positive trade-income growth correlation. The completedataset of these new measures is available on the WorldBank’sWITSPlatform, and it is regularly updated, provid-ing a key resource for GVC analysis. This paper presents a new approach to measuring GlobalValue Chain (GVC) participation, essential for informedpolicy-making. It introduces a tripartite classification ofGVC involvement—backward, forward, and two-sided—extending beyond trade to include production data. GVCs,vital for global economic growth, are networks throughwhich companies internationally produce goods and ser-vices. The advanced framework accurately assesses howdifferent combinations of domestic output, trade, andGVC integration correlate with growth and output sta-bility. The paper finds that traditional trade-based GVCmetrics significantly underestimate global GVC activityand misrepresent participation in key sectors like services The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Economic Consequences of Trade and Global ValueChain Integration: A Measurement Perspective Alessandro Borin1, Michele Mancini2, and Daria Taglioni3 1Bank of Italy2Bank of Italy3World Bank JEL Codes:E16, F1, F14, F15 1Introduction Securing market access and promoting exports are since long considered as primary driversof economic growth and prosperity.The emergence of Global Value Chains (GVCs), whichencompass production processes whose stages are spread across different countries, industries,and firms, complicate policy-making decisions. Global Value Chains introduce new opportu-nities and risks compared to traditional trade. On the one hand, GVC-led growth strategiesfeature additional gains from specializing in specific tasks or components and securing bet-ter access to inputs, technology, and skills through repeated firm-to-firm interactions (WorldBank, 2019 and Antr`as, 2020). On the other hand, GVC participation presents countries withgreater challenges, including more income inequality and heightened exposure to importedshocks and risks (due for example to dependencies on foreign partners, sourcing challenges,market concentration of critical inputs or stages of production, and new types of technologyand intellectual property vulnerabilities). Governments today recognize that opportunities and challenges differ between approachesthat place a different empahsis on domestic production, traditional trade, and GVC engage-ment.Yet to find the appropriate policy mix, it is essential that they can rely on rigorous,comprehensive, and unbiased measurement of all these forces.This paper addresses thisprecise need.It develops enhanced accounting measures at the country-sector level usinginter-country input-output (ICIO) data and targets two fundamental questions: how much docountries and industries participate to traditional trade and to GVCs? And in what differentways? This paper argues that a statistically rigorous and theory-consistent approach to measuringtrade and GVC participation is needed to answer these questions. It requires a decompositioninto three components: pure backward participation, pure forward participation, and a two-sided engagement strategically positioned between the extremes, involving elements of bothbackward and forward participation. Furthermore, the paper advocates for a comprehensiveassessment of the role of GVC participation on the domestic economy by applying GVCconcepts to both output metrics and trade metrics. This approach deviates significantly fromconventional metrics that decompose participation in backward and forwa