世界气象组织全球年度至十年际气候更新

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONGlobal Annual to Decadal Climate Update Key Messages The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-yearperiod 2026-2030. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for eachyear between 2026 and 2030 is predicted to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C higher than the It is very likely (91% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°Cabove the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It is alsolikely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850- It is likely (86% chance) that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will set a new annualrecord (currently 2024). It is exceptionally unlikely (<1%) that any year will exceed 2°C of The five-year predicted average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the wholetropics indicates a preference for El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. Arctic temperatures over the next five extended winters (November-March) are predicted tobe 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly more than three and half Decadal predictions of near-surface temperature for 2026-2035 are similar to those seen inclimate projections. However, the predictions show warmer anomalies over the Amazon,North Africa, northern Scandinavia, and the Greenland Sea than projections.Predictions of Arctic sea-ice for March 2026-2035 suggest further reductions in sea-iceconcentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2026-2030 suggest wet anomalies inthe Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon, aremore likely in this season.Regional forecasts are made for all WMO Regions. As an example, recent winters have beenanomalously dry in the Southeastern European (SEECOF) region. The regional forecastsuggests that the 2026-2030 period is likely to have anomalously high precipitation again. Observed Climate of the Last Five Years This section provides a brief summary of the observed climate of the last five years to give context forthe predictions shown later in this report. Please refer to theWMO State of the Global Climate report for a more complete discussion. Figure 1 shows the global patterns of surface air temperature, sea-level pressure and precipitation anomalies over the last year (2025) and the last five-year (2021-2025) Last year, 2025, was one of the three warmest years on record, with the globally averaged near-surface temperature estimated at 1.43 °C ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Near-surfacetemperatures in 2025 were warmer than the long-term average almost everywhere over land with Over 2021-2025, anomalous warmth was widespread, except over the eastern tropical Pacific andparts of South America, Australia and India.The anomalies were largest at high latitudes in theNorthern Hemisphere, especially the Arctic, and generally larger over land than ocean, apart from in Sea-level pressure in 2025 and in the last five years was anomalously low over Antarctica. The AleutianLow for 2021-2025 was anomalously weak and the sea-level pressure was high in the eastern Pacific, Precipitation patterns in 2025 show that parts of central South America had below average rainfall.Southern Africa and the maritime continent had above average rainfall. During 2021-2025, parts ofAsia and the African Sahel were wetter than average, and southern Africa, western Australia, central To highlight summer and winter differences, Figure 2 shows average anomalies over the last five yearsfor two extended seasons, May to September and November to March. Both seasons had generallyhigher temperatures than the 1991-2020 average, apart from the East and South Pacific. Western The sea-level pressure anomalies seen in the five-year mean in Figure 1 over Antarctica and theAleutian Low were largest in November to March. Precipitation patterns show that East Asia and South Asia were wetter than average in May to September, but this hides large inter-annual variability. TheAfrican Sahel also shows wet anomalies for this season. Western Australia and most of South Americawere drier than average over the five years in both seasons. Annually averaged global (land and sea) mean near-surface temperature has increased continuouslyover recent decades (Figure 3). The last three years, 2023-2025, are the warmest years on record.According to the WMOState of the Global Climate,the last eleven years are also the hottest on record,primarily due to the rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Atlantic MultidecadalVariability (AMV) anomalies in the last five years are positive since near-surface temperatures in the Predictions from